Featured · March 2026
Artificial intelligence makes data more productive, but it also makes data more costly to govern. This paper asks where that governance cost shows up in firms' own risk disclosures.
2026 · AI and data
An independent extension of the Anthropic Economic Index: published occupational activity across countries, transparent classification links, publication support and external validation. Explore country evidence and download the documented observations.
2025 · Monetary policy
Immediate international monetary spillovers are large and broadly shared, but standard daily designs understate their magnitude and overstate cross-country heterogeneity because most foreign cash markets are closed at FOMC announcement times. US-traded country ETFs allow shocks and outcomes to be measured in the same high-frequency window. A geographic discontinuity validates the design.
2025 · Climate change
The paper analyses whether monetary policy transmits differently across firms with varying environmental performance. Using high-frequency identification around FOMC announcements from 2005 to 2025, it decomposes policy shocks into target and path components. Environmental heterogeneity is strongest in the forward-guidance or path channel.
2026 · CBDC
Central banks discuss central bank digital currency far more often than they move from research to implementation. This paper asks whether public commitment in central bank communication predicts that transition or whether it mainly captures participation in the policy debate.
2026 · Climate change
Central banks now speak openly about climate change. Whether climate enters the official record through which monetary-policy decisions are explained is another matter. This paper compares more than 37,000 speeches from 136 institutions with nearly 3,600 official meeting records from 26 central banks across 14 languages.
2026 · Central bank communication
The paper studies whether the structure of central bank communication events affects public engagement with monetary policy. The Bank of England's 2015 Super Thursday reform replaced a two-occasion quarterly forecast round, in which the rate decision and the forecast report arrived on separate days, with a single bundled release.
2026 · Economic history
This paper investigates the pricing of human capital within a modernising imperial state. Using a newly constructed personnel panel of 4,200 Ottoman Post and Telegraph officials from the 1870s to 1905, it documents a steep, monotonic wage gradient where advanced credentials command premia of 37-46 percent relative to primary schooling.
Detailed paper page forthcoming.
2025 · Central bank communication
Central banks increasingly communicate directly with the public, yet most evidence studies comprehension after exposure. This paper studies the prior attention margin: which official Bank of England tweets receive visible public engagement. Using 9,810 official Bank of England tweets from July 2011 to July 2022, tweet-level Poisson models show that format, timing, and policy context strongly predict engagement.
2025 · Climate change
This page presents the same ESG monetary-transmission project under its shorter research title. The paper studies whether environmental and ESG characteristics create heterogeneous responses to FOMC target and path surprises.
2022 · Monetary policy
This paper asks whether FOMC minutes, released after the policy meeting, still contain market-relevant surprise information. It constructs target and path surprise measures using intradaily data for Fed funds futures and studies the response of stock prices, Treasury yields, and exchange rates from December 2004 to November 2017.
2013 · Finance and banking
The paper discusses and assesses Istanbul as an international finance centre within the context of Islamic finance. It argues that Istanbul's current image, legal and regulatory infrastructure, and human capacity did not at the time allow it to become an international finance centre.
2012 · Finance and banking
This research empirically investigates the determinants of net interest margin in the Turkish banking sector with particular emphasis on bank ownership. It uses a bank-level dataset covering Turkey's commercial banking sector from 2001 to 2012.
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