Central Bank Communication and CBDC Implementation

Fatih Kansoy

Working Paper · Mar 2026 New

Central Bank Communication and CBDC Implementation

University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

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Summary

If central banks talk about CBDCs so much, why do so few move beyond research? Using 37,814 speeches from 134 jurisdictions and a scored 2015-2025 sample of 15,906 speeches from 122 jurisdictions, this paper shows that public commitment is much better at tracking agenda participation than at predicting actual implementation beyond research.

Once prior project stage is controlled for, speech-based commitment adds little incremental information about advancement. The strongest validated negative correlate is legal-regulatory concern, with more open capital accounts also associated with lower progression. The figure below captures the talk-action puzzle directly: discourse rises far faster than movement into advanced CBDC stages.

Figure showing mean CBDC commitment over time against the stage distribution across countries. — Headline figure: commitment increases much faster than actual progression to advanced stages, which is the central empirical puzzle of the paper.

At a Glance

Research question: Does central-bank rhetoric about CBDC predict implementation, or mostly reflect deliberation without follow-through?
Core finding: Commitment tracks discussion, but legal-regulatory constraints and structural openness matter more for advancement beyond research.
Data: 37,814 speeches from 134 jurisdictions, with a scored 2015-2025 analysis sample of 15,906 speeches from 122 jurisdictions.
JEL: E42, E58, G28, O33

Citation

Kansoy, Fatih. 2026. “Central Bank Communication and CBDC Implementation.” University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers.

@article{kansoy2026cbdc,
  title   = {Central Bank Communication and CBDC Implementation},
  author  = {Kansoy, Fatih},
  journal = {University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers},
  year    = {2026}
}