Review
Twelve questions to master
If you can answer these clearly, you have the analytical spine of the course.
Lecture 1 · Communication
Why can communication change policy outcomes?
Trace the channel from words to expectations to decisions.
When does transparency improve credibility?
Separate clarity, commitment, and accountability.
Why can forward guidance fail?
Consider uncertainty, time inconsistency, and audience interpretation.
Lecture 2 · Expectations
Why are expectations latent?
Explain why every observed measure is a proxy.
What differs across surveys and market prices?
Identify agents, horizons, risk premia, and information sets.
Why does calendar weighting matter?
Recover a meeting surprise from a monthly-average futures rate.
Lecture 3 · Surprises
What makes a policy action surprising?
Separate the announced decision from the market’s prior expectation.
What are target and path factors?
Explain why one scalar surprise is not enough.
What can an event study identify?
State the role of the window, contamination, and market timing.
Lecture 4 · Text as data
What is the treatment in communication research?
Distinguish publication, exposure, attention, and interpretation.
How should a tone measure be validated?
Match the dictionary or model to the central-banking domain.
Why does readability matter?
Connect text design to who can receive and use a policy signal.
