Illustration balancing central-bank independence and democratic accountability

Lecture 01 · 85 interactive slides

Central-bank communication

Why communication can be policy: transparency, credibility, uncertainty, expectations, anchoring, independence, accountability, and forward guidance.

  • Credibility
  • Risk vs uncertainty
  • Anchoring
  • Forward guidance
  • Institutional design

PDF · 142 pages · approximately 18 MB

Diagram linking signals, measurement wedges, and identification

Lecture 02 · 60 interactive slides

Measuring expectations

Expectations are latent and every trace is incomplete. Compare surveys, market prices, and text; then learn the futures mechanics behind meeting-based surprise measures.

  • Latent beliefs
  • Surveys
  • Fed funds futures
  • Calendar weights
  • Measurement wedges

PDF · 133 pages · approximately 9 MB

Estimand ladder moving from market surprise to causal interpretation

Lecture 03 · 83 interactive slides

Monetary policy surprises

Separate expected decisions from genuine news, decompose target and path factors, build high-frequency designs, and examine spillovers across borders and market hours.

  • Kuttner surprise
  • Target factor
  • Path factor
  • Event windows
  • Global spillovers

PDF · 81 pages · approximately 8.5 MB

Toolbox illustrating multiple ways to measure and improve readability

Lecture 04 · 144 interactive slides

Communication as text data

Measure communication without collapsing publication into exposure or interpretation. Study release architecture, tone, attention, readability, staged disclosure, and public communication.

  • Text as data
  • Attention
  • Tone
  • Release design
  • Readability

PDF · 133 pages · approximately 22 MB

Recommended workflow

A

Present

Use the HTML deck in a modern browser. Full-screen mode and large-format typography are built for the lecture room.

B

Review

Return to overview mode to see the argument’s structure and locate the section you want to revisit.

C

Annotate

Use the PDF when you want a fixed sequence, page references, download, or handwritten notes.