Day 1 · Monday · Empirical studio

Extracting only what a source states

Read before opening the notebook60 minutes; pair work with individual votes
Dataset
BIS speech-description role extraction

Prepared classroom extract; row-level release depends on source terms

ItemCourse definition
Filesbis_role_development.csv; bis_role_audit.csv; bis_role_deployment.csv; day1_application.ipynb
Unitone BIS speech record with one canonical URL and primary-author field
Population and periodeligible BIS central-bank speech records; source collection dated 10 September 1996–20 June 2025
Targetone explicitly supported category: FIRST_TIER_LEADER, SECOND_TIER_LEADER, BOARD_MEMBER, SENIOR_STAFF, or ABSTAIN
Variablesrecord ID, URL, date, author, title, description, split; development also supplies reference label, evidence span, label method, and review status
Information availablethe public description attached to the record; the speech body, outside biography, gender, and inferred identity are excluded
Prediction pointwhen the public description is supplied for extraction; no later biography, personnel record, or outside search may enter the result
Splitsdevelopment: 600 records through 2021; audit: 250 records from 2022–2023; deployment: 250 records from 2024–2025; authors do not cross splits
SourceBIS central-bank speeches collection, pinned snapshot through 20 June 2025
Where useddevelopment selects the plurality baseline and permits one rule revision; audit compares frozen systems; deployment remains closed today
Important

Your task is to extract a role phrase that the supplied description supports. It is not to discover a person's true authority. Choose ABSTAIN when the description is silent or ambiguous.

Gate 1: answer before code

  1. The claim this dataset can test

    Which claim matches the recorded target?

    1. The system discovers each speaker's actual authority inside the institution

    2. The supplied description contains evidence for one permitted role label, or the system abstains

    3. The speaker's job title causes the subject of the speech

    4. The author's name is enough to infer seniority

  2. Permitted information

    Which candidate input belongs in this exercise?

    1. An outside biography found by searching the author's name

    2. A gender inferred from the author's name

    3. An exact role phrase in the supplied public description

    4. A private institutional personnel record

  3. Why the audit labels stay closed

    Why must the rule be frozen before audit labels are opened?

    1. So that audit records can be treated as if they had no descriptions

    2. So that the audit evaluates a rule not selected to fit those same outcomes

    3. Because development labels are always more accurate than audit labels

    4. Because a frozen rule needs no human review

What you will do in the notebook

  1. Load the 600 development records and confirm which columns are available.

  2. Use the most common resolved development label as the full-coverage baseline.

  3. Run the compact phrase rule. Inspect development mismatches and make no more than one change supported by development evidence.

  4. Freeze both systems and generate predictions for all 250 audit IDs.

  5. Confirm that the evidence span copied by the rule occurs in the supplied description.

  6. After I release the aggregate audit table, answer Gate 2. Do not revise either system on the audit results.

Important

The automatic reference labels are not yet final ground truth. A second reader must review the closed labels without seeing model predictions before the audit can support a live performance claim.

Gate 2: aggregate revealAfter both prediction files are frozenUse these figures as build evidence while independent label review remains pending.
SystemAudit rowsAnsweredCoverageSelective accuracy
Plurality baseline250250100.0%50.4%
Compact phrase rule25024598.0%100.0%
  1. Comparing the two systems

    Which statement reads all relevant denominators correctly?

    1. The compact rule is correct on every possible BIS description

    2. The plurality baseline has better performance because it answers more records

    3. Against the provisional audit reference, the compact rule answers 245 of 250 and is correct on those 245; five records are abstentions

    4. Selective accuracy and coverage are the same quantity

  2. A defensible workflow

    How should an answered record and an abstention be handled?

    1. Treat every answer as final and delete abstentions

    2. Preserve the source phrase, allow review or correction, and route abstentions or disputes to a person

    3. Infer a missing role from the author's institution

    4. Replace abstentions with the plurality class so the compact rule reports 100% coverage

  3. What independent review protects

    Suppose the automatic reference extractor and the compact rule share similar phrases. Why is blinded human review important?

    1. Agreement may reflect shared construction rather than independent evidence of correctness

    2. Human review will necessarily make coverage equal to 100%

    3. Blinding allows reviewers to tune the compact rule

    4. A reviewed label becomes a causal effect

  4. The narrow conclusion

    Which conclusion is appropriate at the end of today's studio?

    1. The rule identifies speakers' true institutional power

    2. The build evidence shows that a frozen phrase rule can extract supported labels from this audit sample with reported coverage, pending independent label review

    3. The rule will retain the same performance on every institution and future period

    4. The deployment split may now be used to revise the rule

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