Day 1 · Monday · Empirical studio
Extracting only what a source states
Prepared classroom extract; row-level release depends on source terms
| Item | Course definition |
|---|---|
| Files | bis_role_development.csv; bis_role_audit.csv;
bis_role_deployment.csv; day1_application.ipynb |
| Unit | one BIS speech record with one canonical URL and primary-author field |
| Population and period | eligible BIS central-bank speech records; source collection dated 10 September 1996–20 June 2025 |
| Target | one explicitly supported category:
FIRST_TIER_LEADER, SECOND_TIER_LEADER,
BOARD_MEMBER, SENIOR_STAFF, or ABSTAIN |
| Variables | record ID, URL, date, author, title, description, split; development also supplies reference label, evidence span, label method, and review status |
| Information available | the public description attached to the record; the speech body, outside biography, gender, and inferred identity are excluded |
| Prediction point | when the public description is supplied for extraction; no later biography, personnel record, or outside search may enter the result |
| Splits | development: 600 records through 2021; audit: 250 records from 2022–2023; deployment: 250 records from 2024–2025; authors do not cross splits |
| Source | BIS central-bank speeches collection, pinned snapshot through 20 June 2025 |
| Where used | development selects the plurality baseline and permits one rule revision; audit compares frozen systems; deployment remains closed today |
Your task is to extract a role phrase that the supplied description supports.
It is not to discover a person's true authority. Choose ABSTAIN when
the description is silent or ambiguous.
Gate 1: answer before code
- The claim this dataset can test
Which claim matches the recorded target?
The system discovers each speaker's actual authority inside the institution
The supplied description contains evidence for one permitted role label, or the system abstains
The speaker's job title causes the subject of the speech
The author's name is enough to infer seniority
- Permitted information
Which candidate input belongs in this exercise?
An outside biography found by searching the author's name
A gender inferred from the author's name
An exact role phrase in the supplied public description
A private institutional personnel record
- Why the audit labels stay closed
Why must the rule be frozen before audit labels are opened?
So that audit records can be treated as if they had no descriptions
So that the audit evaluates a rule not selected to fit those same outcomes
Because development labels are always more accurate than audit labels
Because a frozen rule needs no human review
What you will do in the notebook
Load the 600 development records and confirm which columns are available.
Use the most common resolved development label as the full-coverage baseline.
Run the compact phrase rule. Inspect development mismatches and make no more than one change supported by development evidence.
Freeze both systems and generate predictions for all 250 audit IDs.
Confirm that the evidence span copied by the rule occurs in the supplied description.
After I release the aggregate audit table, answer Gate 2. Do not revise either system on the audit results.
The automatic reference labels are not yet final ground truth. A second reader must review the closed labels without seeing model predictions before the audit can support a live performance claim.
| System | Audit rows | Answered | Coverage | Selective accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plurality baseline | 250 | 250 | 100.0% | 50.4% |
| Compact phrase rule | 250 | 245 | 98.0% | 100.0% |
- Comparing the two systems
Which statement reads all relevant denominators correctly?
The compact rule is correct on every possible BIS description
The plurality baseline has better performance because it answers more records
Against the provisional audit reference, the compact rule answers 245 of 250 and is correct on those 245; five records are abstentions
Selective accuracy and coverage are the same quantity
- A defensible workflow
How should an answered record and an abstention be handled?
Treat every answer as final and delete abstentions
Preserve the source phrase, allow review or correction, and route abstentions or disputes to a person
Infer a missing role from the author's institution
Replace abstentions with the plurality class so the compact rule reports 100% coverage
- What independent review protects
Suppose the automatic reference extractor and the compact rule share similar phrases. Why is blinded human review important?
Agreement may reflect shared construction rather than independent evidence of correctness
Human review will necessarily make coverage equal to 100%
Blinding allows reviewers to tune the compact rule
A reviewed label becomes a causal effect
- The narrow conclusion
Which conclusion is appropriate at the end of today's studio?
The rule identifies speakers' true institutional power
The build evidence shows that a frozen phrase rule can extract supported labels from this audit sample with reported coverage, pending independent label review
The rule will retain the same performance on every institution and future period
The deployment split may now be used to revise the rule