Recent
Recent News
Project news, research updates, announcements, grants, and selected teaching material.
New machine-learning research on football forecasting
My new football-forecasting study, Dominant Below, Drowning Above, uses five major European leagues from 1993/94 to 2025/26 to study promoted clubs as a domain-shift problem. The main result is that machine-learning models forecast established clubs well, but promoted clubs remain much harder to distinguish before the season begins.
AI, Machine Learning and Deep Learning syllabuses added
I added new Worcester College syllabuses for AI and Machine Learning and AI and Deep Learning. The two pages set out a practical sequence from data, prediction and model evaluation to neural networks, transformers, LLMs, agents and responsible AI.
New research on AI as data liability
Our recent paper, Data as Liability, studies whether AI adoption creates a disclosure-visible data-governance cost. Using SEC filings, we find that AI adoption, especially customer-facing deployment, is associated with higher disclosed attention to data-breach risk, while AI invention is economically much smaller once both margins are compared.
New research on global monetary-policy spillovers
My paper, The Immediate Global Impact of US Monetary Policy, measures international spillovers in the same high-frequency window as FOMC surprises. Using US-traded country ETFs, it shows that US monetary-policy news reprices non-US equity wealth within thirty minutes, even when many foreign cash markets are closed.
