WC 2026 · Forecasting Oxford Football Forecasting

§ Forecast · all 48 teams

The outright forecast

Champion and stage-progression probabilities for every team, from the locked Monte-Carlo simulation of the official bracket. Sort any column; switch between fixture-aware Reality and fixture-free Power. Every figure carries its Monte-Carlo error.

§ 01

The field is tight

Champion probability for the top twelve, with the ±1.96·MC-SE whisker. The leaders are separated by less than the spread of the chasing pack — and the whiskers overlap.

Fig. V1 Fixture-aware · 100k sims · confederation-coloured

Champion probability — top 12

Argentina: 16.45% (95% MC 16.22%–16.68%; MC-SE ±0.12 pts) 1 🇦🇷 Argentina 16.5% ±0.12 Spain: 15.95% (95% MC 15.73%–16.18%; MC-SE ±0.12 pts) 2 🇪🇸 Spain 16.0% ±0.12 Brazil: 8.98% (95% MC 8.80%–9.15%; MC-SE ±0.09 pts) 3 🇧🇷 Brazil 9.0% ±0.09 England: 8.96% (95% MC 8.78%–9.13%; MC-SE ±0.09 pts) 4 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 9.0% ±0.09 France: 8.94% (95% MC 8.76%–9.12%; MC-SE ±0.09 pts) 5 🇫🇷 France 8.9% ±0.09 Portugal: 6.16% (95% MC 6.01%–6.30%; MC-SE ±0.08 pts) 6 🇵🇹 Portugal 6.2% ±0.08 Netherlands: 4.85% (95% MC 4.72%–4.99%; MC-SE ±0.07 pts) 7 🇳🇱 Netherlands 4.9% ±0.07 Colombia: 4.09% (95% MC 3.97%–4.22%; MC-SE ±0.06 pts) 8 🇨🇴 Colombia 4.1% ±0.06 Germany: 3.89% (95% MC 3.77%–4.01%; MC-SE ±0.06 pts) 9 🇩🇪 Germany 3.9% ±0.06 Belgium: 2.48% (95% MC 2.38%–2.58%; MC-SE ±0.05 pts) 10 🇧🇪 Belgium 2.5% ±0.05 Norway: 2.42% (95% MC 2.32%–2.51%; MC-SE ±0.05 pts) 11 🇳🇴 Norway 2.4% ±0.05 Morocco: 1.97% (95% MC 1.88%–2.05%; MC-SE ±0.04 pts) 12 🇲🇦 Morocco 2.0% ±0.04
whisker = ±1.96 × MC-SE (≈95% Monte-Carlo interval) UEFACONMEBOLCONCACAFCAFAFCOFC

2 teams sit inside ~1 point at the top; below them the distribution decays smoothly with no clear tier break. The simulation error (whiskers) on the leaders overlaps.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Full forecast table

All 48 teams. Click a column header to sort.

# Team Grp Confed Champion Final Semi Quarter R16 Advance
1🇦🇷ArgentinaJCONMEBOL16.45%±0.1225.6%38.7%54.1%69.3%98.3%
2🇪🇸SpainHUEFA15.95%±0.1225.6%38.6%50.4%71.4%99.2%
3🇧🇷BrazilCCONMEBOL8.98%±0.0915.8%27.9%44.8%67.1%98.3%
4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandLUEFA8.96%±0.0916.1%28.1%46.3%68.9%97.5%
5🇫🇷FranceIUEFA8.94%±0.0916.1%28.3%44.3%68.1%95.2%
6🇵🇹PortugalKUEFA6.16%±0.0812.1%22.3%39.6%64.4%93.8%
7🇳🇱NetherlandsFUEFA4.85%±0.0710.0%19.8%34.9%52.2%92.3%
8🇨🇴ColombiaKCONMEBOL4.09%±0.068.9%17.6%33.0%57.9%91.4%
9🇩🇪GermanyEUEFA3.89%±0.068.7%18.0%32.8%62.5%98.1%
10🇧🇪BelgiumGUEFA2.48%±0.056.3%13.8%34.0%61.9%93.9%
11🇳🇴NorwayIUEFA2.42%±0.055.8%13.2%26.4%50.8%87.7%
12🇲🇦MoroccoCCAF1.97%±0.044.9%11.7%24.6%44.9%88.8%
13🇪🇨EcuadorECONMEBOL1.87%±0.044.7%11.0%23.3%50.7%93.3%
14🇭🇷CroatiaLUEFA1.78%±0.044.5%10.6%22.0%47.0%90.3%
15🇨🇭SwitzerlandBUEFA1.72%±0.044.6%11.4%27.8%60.6%96.2%
16🇯🇵JapanFAFC1.65%±0.044.2%10.0%20.9%37.9%83.1%
17🇺🇾UruguayHCONMEBOL1.37%±0.043.8%9.4%19.6%37.2%89.6%
18🇲🇽MexicoACONCACAF1.14%±0.033.3%8.9%23.2%54.5%92.7%
19🇹🇷TürkiyeDUEFA1.03%±0.032.9%7.3%19.4%43.7%76.7%
20🇦🇹AustriaJUEFA0.55%±0.021.9%5.1%12.8%28.6%76.7%
21🇵🇾ParaguayDCONMEBOL0.54%±0.021.7%4.9%14.0%35.6%69.2%
22🇸🇳SenegalICAF0.45%±0.021.4%4.5%12.5%30.1%69.3%
23🇮🇷IR IranGAFC0.45%±0.021.5%4.6%14.6%39.5%79.4%
24🇨🇦CanadaBCONCACAF0.31%±0.021.2%4.2%14.8%44.4%91.8%
25🇩🇿AlgeriaJCAF0.29%±0.021.1%3.4%9.8%24.6%70.1%
26🇨🇿CzechiaAUEFA0.28%±0.021.0%3.6%12.6%35.6%73.4%
27🇦🇺AustraliaDAFC0.25%±0.021.0%3.2%10.1%28.6%61.3%
28🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireECAF0.23%±0.020.8%3.2%10.8%31.8%80.2%
29🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandCUEFA0.22%±0.010.9%3.0%9.6%25.5%70.4%
30🇰🇷Korea RepublicAAFC0.22%±0.010.9%3.0%11.1%31.8%68.4%
31🇺🇸USADCONCACAF0.17%±0.010.7%2.6%9.4%29.4%67.2%
32🇸🇪SwedenFUEFA0.15%±0.010.6%2.2%6.7%17.8%60.2%
33🇪🇬EgyptGCAF0.12%±0.010.6%2.2%8.4%28.1%67.6%
34🇺🇿UzbekistanKAFC0.02%±0.000.1%0.4%2.1%8.4%36.4%
35🇨🇩Congo DRKCAF0.02%±0.000.1%0.7%2.8%10.8%40.2%
36🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaBUEFA0.02%±0.000.1%0.7%4.6%19.2%60.1%
37🇹🇳TunisiaFCAF0.01%±0.000.1%0.4%1.8%6.6%33.2%
38🇵🇦PanamaLCONCACAF0.01%±0.000.0%0.3%1.5%6.7%34.8%
39🇿🇦South AfricaACAF0.01%±0.000.1%0.3%2.2%10.1%34.7%
40🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaHAFC0.00%±0.000.0%0.2%1.2%6.5%35.1%
41🇬🇭GhanaLCAF0.00%±0.000.1%0.3%1.5%6.7%36.0%
42🇮🇶IraqIAFC0.00%±0.000.0%0.1%0.8%3.6%17.6%
43🇨🇻Cabo VerdeHCAF0.00%±0.000.0%0.1%0.8%4.5%27.3%
44🇨🇼CuraçaoECONCACAF0.00%±0.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%5.2%
45🇶🇦QatarBAFC0.00%±0.000.0%0.0%0.3%2.8%18.2%
46🇳🇿New ZealandGOFC0.00%±0.000.0%0.1%0.8%6.0%27.6%
47🇭🇹HaitiCCONCACAF0.00%±0.000.0%0.0%0.2%1.4%11.6%
48🇯🇴JordanJAFC0.00%±0.000.0%0.1%0.7%3.5%20.4%
Reality vs Power — what the two views mean

Reality is the locked forecast: title odds given the actual draw and bracket wiring. Power re-draws the bracket 500 ways (2,000 sims each, 1.0M total) to strip out fixture luck and estimate fixture-free strength. The draw-luck column is Reality − Power: positive means a kinder-than-average path, negative a tougher one. Both use identical kernels and scale.

§ 03

Against the market

Out-of-sample, against the de-vigged closing market.

0.1891

Ensemble out-of-sample RPS

vs

0.1905

De-vigged market consensus

On the 152 held-out matches, the ensemble's ranked probability score edges the closing market — by 0.0014. At an effective n = 3 tournaments the difference is not statistically significant: the model matches the market, it does not beat it. The forecast above is the ensemble's own probabilities; the bookmaker blend (w* ≈ 0.66) is reported separately and applied only to match-level W/D/L, not to these stage probabilities.

See the full validation, calibration and conformal coverage →