§ Groups · all twelve · the group stage
The group stage
Twelve groups of four; the top two of each plus the eight best third-placed teams reach the Round of 32. Each bar below splits a team's group-stage fate into win the group, runner-up, qualify as a best third and eliminated — the four sum to one. Probabilities and expected points come from the locked 100,000-tournament simulation; every team's P(advance) equals its Round-of-32 probability in the forecast exactly.
10 of 12 groups have a clear favourite; 2 are a tossup. The most open is Group D — even Türkiye tops it just 33% of the time.
§ 01
Twelve groups, forty-eight teams
Each card is ordered by P(win group). Click a group to open its round-robin, advancement matrix and finishing-position heatmap.
- Mexico 56 26 11
- Czechia 22 32 20 26
- Korea Republic 17 29 22 32
- South Africa 14 16 65
- Switzerland 57 30 9
- Canada 34 43 15 8
- Bosnia and Herzegovina 8 21 31 40
- Qatar 6 11 82
- Brazil 65 25 8
- Morocco 24 45 20 11
- Scotland 10 27 34 29
- Haiti 7 88
- Türkiye 33 27 17 23
- Paraguay 24 26 19 31
- USA 24 24 19 33
- Australia 19 23 19 39
- Germany 55 30 13
- Ecuador 32 40 21
- Côte d'Ivoire 13 28 39 20
- Curaçao 95
- Netherlands 53 28 11 8
- Japan 30 36 17 17
- Sweden 12 24 24 40
- Tunisia 12 17 67
- Belgium 57 26 11
- IR Iran 24 35 20 21
- Egypt 15 28 24 33
- New Zealand 10 14 73
- Spain 77 20
- Uruguay 21 58 11 10
- Saudi Arabia 12 21 65
- Cabo Verde 10 16 73
- France 55 29 11
- Norway 30 39 19 12
- Senegal 13 27 29 31
- Iraq 6 10 83
- Argentina 73 20
- Austria 14 40 23 23
- Algeria 11 33 26 30
- Jordan 8 11 80
- Portugal 50 35 9
- Colombia 41 39 11 9
- Congo DR 14 21 60
- Uzbekistan 13 20 63
- England 64 28
- Croatia 30 48 12 10
- Ghana 12 21 64
- Panama 12 20 65
How these probabilities are produced
The four outcomes per team — win the group, finish runner-up, qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams, or go out — are tallied directly from the locked 100,000-tournament Monte-Carlo simulation. The same run produces the champion and stage forecast, so each team's P(advance) here is identical to its P(reach R32) on the forecast page; the group-stage finishing order uses the full official FIFA tiebreakers (points → goal difference → goals for → head-to-head → drawing of lots).
The favourite / tossup badge is a reader's label, not a model parameter: a group has a favourite when its leader wins the group at least 45% of the time and leads the second team by at least 15 points; otherwise it is a tossup. Expected points is the mean points total after three matches across the simulations. Uncertainty (±1.96 · Monte-Carlo SE) is drawn as a whisker on the advance line.