Group A
Mexico is the clear favourite, winning Group A56% of the time. Mexico (93%) and Czechia (73%) are the likeliest to advance; Korea Republic carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (22%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Mexico CONCACAF
- Czechia UEFA
- Korea Republic AFC
- South Africa CAF
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M1 11 Jun · 19:00 UTC Mexico City StadiumW 68.8 D 21.2 W 10 O2.5 48% BTTS 41% xG 1.98–0.62
- M2 12 Jun · 02:00 UTC Guadalajara StadiumW 33.5 D 30.6 W 35.9 O2.5 40% BTTS 48% xG 1.12–1.17
- M25 18 Jun · 16:00 UTC Atlanta StadiumW 51.1 D 29.2 W 19.7 O2.5 38% BTTS 42% xG 1.41–0.78
- M28 19 Jun · 01:00 UTC Guadalajara StadiumW 56.1 D 25.7 W 18.2 O2.5 48% BTTS 49% xG 1.70–0.88
- M53 25 Jun · 01:00 UTC Mexico City StadiumW 23.7 D 28.3 W 48 O2.5 44% BTTS 49% xG 0.96–1.47
- M54 25 Jun · 01:00 UTC Monterrey StadiumW 20.3 D 30.9 W 48.8 O2.5 34% BTTS 39% xG 0.75–1.30
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group A — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Mexico owns first place (56%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.