WC 2026 · Forecasting Oxford Football Forecasting

§ Rankings · Power vs Reality · the draw effect

Your strength, and the bracket you actually drew

Two rankings, not one. Power is fixture-free strength — a team's title odds if the bracket were re-drawn fairly, averaged over 500 re-draws (1.0M simulations). Reality is the locked forecast: the odds it actually carries into the draw it landed. Draw-luck is the gap, Reality − Power.

The headline is that the draw is close to fair: the largest swing is +0.41 of a percentage point of title probability (Brazil, the toughest path), and 29 of the 48 teams sit inside a ±0.04 pp band that is indistinguishable from a perfectly fair draw. The favourites are near-neutral — Argentina −0.15, Spain +0.07 — so the title race is not being decided by the bracket. With the Monte-Carlo error this small, the sign of the effect is still resolvable for 17 of 48 teams; it is the magnitude, not the certainty, that is modest.

The one contender story worth telling sits at the top. On raw Power, Brazil leads England by +0.66 pp. But the draw breaks the other way: England got the softer path (+0.23) and Brazil the tougher one (−0.41), a relative swing of +0.64 pp that all but erases the gap — in the actual bracket they finish level, Brazil ahead by just +0.02 pp, and the two can first meet only in the Round of 16. Among teams whose move is statistically resolvable, Canada climbs furthest on a kind draw and Jordan slips most on a hard one. All effects carry the project's n = 3 ceiling: this is a Monte-Carlo measurement of this draw, not a claim about how lucky a typical World Cup draw is.

§ 01

Power vs Reality

The two rankings side by side. Left axis = fixture-free Power; right axis = the actual draw. Each line's tilt is its draw-luck.

Fig. V8 Top 16 · confederation-coloured · shared √-scale

Power vs Reality — the title-odds re-rank

Connect each team's fixture-free strength (left) to the odds it carries into the real bracket (right). A line sloping up means the draw helped; sloping down, it hurt. Most lines are near-flat — the draw rarely reshuffles the order.

POWER REALITY fixture-free the actual draw Argentina — Power 16.61% (#1) → Reality 16.45% (#1); draw-luck −0.15 pp. Spain — Power 15.88% (#2) → Reality 15.95% (#2); draw-luck +0.07 pp. Brazil — Power 9.39% (#3) → Reality 8.98% (#3); draw-luck −0.41 pp. France — Power 9.09% (#4) → Reality 8.94% (#5); draw-luck −0.15 pp. England — Power 8.73% (#5) → Reality 8.96% (#4); draw-luck +0.23 pp. Portugal — Power 6.01% (#6) → Reality 6.16% (#6); draw-luck +0.14 pp. Netherlands — Power 5.23% (#7) → Reality 4.85% (#7); draw-luck −0.37 pp. Colombia — Power 4.06% (#8) → Reality 4.09% (#8); draw-luck +0.03 pp. Germany — Power 3.90% (#9) → Reality 3.89% (#9); draw-luck −0.01 pp. Norway — Power 2.53% (#10) → Reality 2.42% (#11); draw-luck −0.11 pp. Belgium — Power 2.07% (#11) → Reality 2.48% (#10); draw-luck +0.41 pp. Ecuador — Power 1.91% (#12) → Reality 1.87% (#13); draw-luck −0.04 pp. Morocco — Power 1.89% (#13) → Reality 1.97% (#12); draw-luck +0.08 pp. Japan — Power 1.88% (#14) → Reality 1.65% (#16); draw-luck −0.23 pp. Croatia — Power 1.75% (#15) → Reality 1.78% (#14); draw-luck +0.03 pp. Switzerland — Power 1.53% (#16) → Reality 1.72% (#15); draw-luck +0.19 pp. 🇦🇷 Argentina 16.61% 🇪🇸 Spain 15.88% 🇧🇷 Brazil 9.39% 🇫🇷 France 9.09% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 8.73% 🇵🇹 Portugal 6.01% 🇳🇱 Netherl. 5.23% 🇨🇴 Colombia 4.06% 🇩🇪 Germany 3.90% 🇳🇴 Norway 2.53% 🇧🇪 Belgium 2.07% 🇪🇨 Ecuador 1.91% 🇲🇦 Morocco 1.89% 🇯🇵 Japan 1.88% 🇭🇷 Croatia 1.75% 🇨🇭 Switz. 1.53% 16.45% Argentina 15.95% Spain 8.98% Brazil 8.94% France ▼1 8.96% England ▲1 6.16% Portugal 4.85% Netherl. 4.09% Colombia 3.89% Germany 2.42% Norway ▼1 2.48% Belgium ▲1 1.87% Ecuador ▼1 1.97% Morocco ▲1 1.65% Japan ▼2 1.78% Croatia ▲1 1.72% Switz. ▲1

England is the clearest mover at the top: a softer path pulls it level with Brazil, reversing a +0.66 pp Power deficit to a near-tie in Reality.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — Power = 1.0M re-draw simulations; Reality = the locked forecast

§ 02

The draw-luck tornado

Reality − Power, per team, in percentage points. Blue = a softer-than-fair path; red = a tougher one. Bars carry the ±95% Monte-Carlo whisker; ◆ marks a draw whose sign clears 2× the combined MC-SE.

Fig. V9 Diverging · top 20 · significance-flagged

Draw-luck — who the bracket helped, and who it hurt

Belgium drew the softest path (+0.41); Brazil the toughest (−0.41). The whole axis spans well under a single percentage point of title probability — the bracket nudges, it does not decide.

Belgium: draw-luck +0.41 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.11 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.10 pp). 🇧🇪 Belgium +0.41 England: draw-luck +0.23 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.20 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.20 pp). 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England +0.23 Switzerland: draw-luck +0.19 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.09 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.09 pp). 🇨🇭 Switz. +0.19 Portugal: draw-luck +0.14 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.17 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.17 pp). 🇵🇹 Portugal +0.14 Morocco: draw-luck +0.08 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.10 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.09 pp). 🇲🇦 Morocco +0.08 Mexico: draw-luck +0.07 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.07 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.07 pp). 🇲🇽 Mexico +0.07 Spain: draw-luck +0.07 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.26 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.26 pp). 🇪🇸 Spain +0.07 Türkiye: draw-luck +0.07 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.07 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.07 pp). 🇹🇷 Türkiye +0.07 Colombia: draw-luck +0.03 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.14 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.13 pp). 🇨🇴 Colombia +0.03 Croatia: draw-luck +0.03 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.09 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.09 pp). 🇭🇷 Croatia +0.03 Germany: draw-luck −0.01 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.13 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.13 pp). 🇩🇪 Germany −0.01 Uruguay: draw-luck −0.02 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.08 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.08 pp). 🇺🇾 Uruguay −0.02 Austria: draw-luck −0.03 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.05 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.05 pp). 🇦🇹 Austria −0.03 Ecuador: draw-luck −0.04 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.09 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.09 pp). 🇪🇨 Ecuador −0.04 Norway: draw-luck −0.11 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.11 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.10 pp). 🇳🇴 Norway −0.11 France: draw-luck −0.15 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.20 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.20 pp). 🇫🇷 France −0.15 Argentina: draw-luck −0.15 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.26 pp (95% MC). Not significant at 2× combined SE (±0.26 pp). 🇦🇷 Argentina −0.15 Japan: draw-luck −0.23 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.09 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.09 pp). 🇯🇵 Japan −0.23 Netherlands: draw-luck −0.37 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.15 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.15 pp). 🇳🇱 Netherl. −0.37 Brazil: draw-luck −0.41 pp (Reality − Power), ±0.20 pp (95% MC). Significant — exceeds 2× combined SE (±0.20 pp). 🇧🇷 Brazil −0.41
tougher draw (Reality < Power) softer draw (Reality > Power) sign resolvable at 2× combined MC-SE ±1.96 · MC-SE

Even the extremes move title odds by only tenths of a point. 17 of 48 bars clear the 2×-SE significance bar, but the magnitudes stay small — the draw is close to fair.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — significance: |Reality − Power| > 2 × combined MC-SE

§ 03

Strength vs luck

Power on the horizontal (how strong you are), draw-luck on the vertical (how kind the draw was), bubble area = Reality champion share, colour = confederation.

Fig. V8b Top 20 · bubble area ∝ champion % · √ x-axis

Strength vs luck — are the strong teams also the lucky ones?

If the draw systematically favoured (or punished) the strongest teams, the cloud would tilt. It does not: draw-luck is scattered around the fair-draw line with no trend in Power — strength and luck are independent, as a fair draw should make them.

Power — fixture-free title probability → ← tougher draw · draw-luck (pp) · softer draw → fair draw Argentina — Power 16.61%, Reality 16.45%, draw-luck −0.15 pp. 🇦🇷 Argentina Spain — Power 15.88%, Reality 15.95%, draw-luck +0.07 pp. 🇪🇸 Spain Brazil — Power 9.39%, Reality 8.98%, draw-luck −0.41 pp (significant). 🇧🇷 Brazil France — Power 9.09%, Reality 8.94%, draw-luck −0.15 pp. 🇫🇷 France England — Power 8.73%, Reality 8.96%, draw-luck +0.23 pp (significant). 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England Portugal — Power 6.01%, Reality 6.16%, draw-luck +0.14 pp. 🇵🇹 Portugal Netherlands — Power 5.23%, Reality 4.85%, draw-luck −0.37 pp (significant). 🇳🇱 Netherl. Colombia — Power 4.06%, Reality 4.09%, draw-luck +0.03 pp. 🇨🇴 Colombia Germany — Power 3.90%, Reality 3.89%, draw-luck −0.01 pp. Norway — Power 2.53%, Reality 2.42%, draw-luck −0.11 pp (significant). 🇳🇴 Norway Belgium — Power 2.07%, Reality 2.48%, draw-luck +0.41 pp (significant). 🇧🇪 Belgium Ecuador — Power 1.91%, Reality 1.87%, draw-luck −0.04 pp. Morocco — Power 1.89%, Reality 1.97%, draw-luck +0.08 pp. Japan — Power 1.88%, Reality 1.65%, draw-luck −0.23 pp (significant). 🇯🇵 Japan Croatia — Power 1.75%, Reality 1.78%, draw-luck +0.03 pp. Switzerland — Power 1.53%, Reality 1.72%, draw-luck +0.19 pp (significant). 🇨🇭 Switz. Uruguay — Power 1.38%, Reality 1.37%, draw-luck −0.02 pp. Mexico — Power 1.06%, Reality 1.14%, draw-luck +0.07 pp (significant). 🇲🇽 Mexico Türkiye — Power 0.96%, Reality 1.03%, draw-luck +0.07 pp. Austria — Power 0.58%, Reality 0.55%, draw-luck −0.03 pp.

The big bubbles straddle the fair-draw line: Brazil below it, England above, Argentina essentially on it. Being a favourite buys you no protection from — and no help from — the bracket.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — bubble area ∝ Reality champion probability

§ 04

The full two-ranking table

All 48 teams: Power, Reality, the rank move between them, and draw-luck with a ◆ where the sign is statistically resolvable. Click any column to sort.

Pwr # Team Confed Power Reality Rlty # Move Draw luck
1🇦🇷ArgentinaCONMEBOL16.61%±0.0616.45%±0.121—−0.15
2🇪🇸SpainUEFA15.88%±0.0615.95%±0.122—+0.07
3🇧🇷BrazilCONMEBOL9.39%±0.048.98%±0.093—−0.41◆
4🇫🇷FranceUEFA9.09%±0.048.94%±0.095▼1−0.15
5🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandUEFA8.73%±0.048.96%±0.094▲1+0.23◆
6🇵🇹PortugalUEFA6.01%±0.036.16%±0.086—+0.14
7🇳🇱NetherlandsUEFA5.23%±0.034.85%±0.077—−0.37◆
8🇨🇴ColombiaCONMEBOL4.06%±0.024.09%±0.068—+0.03
9🇩🇪GermanyUEFA3.90%±0.023.89%±0.069—−0.01
10🇳🇴NorwayUEFA2.53%±0.022.42%±0.0511▼1−0.11◆
11🇧🇪BelgiumUEFA2.07%±0.022.48%±0.0510▲1+0.41◆
12🇪🇨EcuadorCONMEBOL1.91%±0.021.87%±0.0413▼1−0.04
13🇲🇦MoroccoCAF1.89%±0.021.97%±0.0412▲1+0.08
14🇯🇵JapanAFC1.88%±0.021.65%±0.0416▼2−0.23◆
15🇭🇷CroatiaUEFA1.75%±0.011.78%±0.0414▲1+0.03
16🇨🇭SwitzerlandUEFA1.53%±0.011.72%±0.0415▲1+0.19◆
17🇺🇾UruguayCONMEBOL1.38%±0.011.37%±0.0417—−0.02
18🇲🇽MexicoCONCACAF1.06%±0.011.14%±0.0318—+0.07◆
19🇹🇷TürkiyeUEFA0.96%±0.011.03%±0.0319—+0.07
20🇦🇹AustriaUEFA0.58%±0.010.55%±0.0220—−0.03
21🇵🇾ParaguayCONMEBOL0.55%±0.010.54%±0.0221—−0.01
22🇸🇳SenegalCAF0.52%±0.010.45%±0.0222—−0.07◆
23🇮🇷IR IranAFC0.33%±0.010.45%±0.0223—+0.11◆
24🇩🇿AlgeriaCAF0.32%±0.010.29%±0.0225▼1−0.03
25🇦🇺AustraliaAFC0.25%±0.010.25%±0.0227▼2−0.00
26🇨🇦CanadaCONCACAF0.23%±0.010.31%±0.0224▲2+0.08◆
27🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireCAF0.23%±0.000.23%±0.0228▼1−0.00
28🇨🇿CzechiaUEFA0.22%±0.000.28%±0.0226▲2+0.06◆
29🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandUEFA0.21%±0.000.22%±0.0129—+0.01
30🇰🇷Korea RepublicAFC0.18%±0.000.22%±0.0130—+0.03◆
31🇺🇸USACONCACAF0.15%±0.000.17%±0.0131—+0.01
32🇸🇪SwedenUEFA0.15%±0.000.15%±0.0132—−0.00
33🇪🇬EgyptCAF0.11%±0.000.12%±0.0133—+0.02
34🇨🇩Congo DRCAF0.03%±0.000.02%±0.0035▼1−0.01◆
35🇹🇳TunisiaCAF0.02%±0.000.01%±0.0037▼2−0.01
36🇺🇿UzbekistanAFC0.01%±0.000.02%±0.0034▲2+0.01
37🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaUEFA0.01%±0.000.02%±0.0036▲1+0.01◆
38🇿🇦South AfricaCAF0.00%±0.000.01%±0.0039▼1+0.00
39🇬🇭GhanaCAF0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0041▼2−0.00
40🇵🇦PanamaCONCACAF0.00%±0.000.01%±0.0038▲2+0.00
41🇮🇶IraqAFC0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0042▼1−0.00
42🇯🇴JordanAFC0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0048▼6−0.00◆
43🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaAFC0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0040▲3+0.00
44🇳🇿New ZealandOFC0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0046▼2−0.00◆
45🇨🇻Cabo VerdeCAF0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0043▲2+0.00
46🇭🇹HaitiCONCACAF0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0047▼1−0.00
47🇶🇦QatarAFC0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0045▲20.00
48🇨🇼CuraçaoCONCACAF0.00%±0.000.00%±0.0044▲40.00
How Power, Reality and draw-luck are built

Reality is the locked forecast: title odds from 100,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of the actual bracket (the official R32→Final wiring). Power strips out fixture luck by re-drawing the bracket 500 different ways (2,000 sims each, 1.0M total) under identical team kernels and the same simulator, then averaging — so it estimates how a team would fare against a fair distribution of paths. Draw-luck is simply Reality − Power.

A draw-luck value is flagged significant (◆) only where its magnitude exceeds twice the combined Monte-Carlo standard error, 2 × √(SEPower² + SEReality²) — i.e. the sign of the effect is resolvable above simulation noise. 17 of 48 teams clear that bar. This is a statement about the precision of the measurement, not its importance: every effect on this page is under +0.41 pp of title probability. And it is one draw — at an effective n = 3 tournaments of out-of-sample history, we measure the luck in this bracket precisely, but make no claim about how lucky a typical World Cup draw is.