away
Cabo Verde Spain
3.1% win 11.5% draw 85.4% loss
Most likely 0–2 (16.6%) λ 0.39–2.70 Over 2.5 60% · BTTS 31%
🇨🇻
Cabo Verde
0.0% Champion probability ±0.00 MC-SE
- Coach
- Bubista home · Cape Verdean
- Elo (model)
- 1,578
- Squad value
- €51M
- Power → Reality
- 45th 43rd +0.00 pp · neutral draw
§ 01
The forecast
How far Cabo Verde goes — the survival probability at each stage of the bracket, from the tournament Monte-Carlo simulation. Each bar carries its ±1.96·MC-SE interval.
Fig. D1 Fixture-aware · 100k sims
Cabo Verde — stage progression
Cabo Verde is most likely eliminated before the knockout rounds: 27% to clear the group. Champion probability 0.00%.
§ 02
The group & the path
Group H advancement odds, the bracket half Cabo Verde sits in, and the earliest round they could meet each leading side.
| Group H | Confed | Advance (top 2) | Reach R32 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | UEFA | 71.4% | 99.2% |
| 2 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 37.2% | 89.6% |
| 3 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | AFC | 6.5% | 35.1% |
| 4 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verde | CAF | 4.5% | 27.3% |
Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model
Bracket position Half 0 · Quadrant 1
Earliest possible meetings
No collision rows recorded for this team.
Collision = the earliest round the bracket wiring could pit Cabo Verde against that side. Full bracket & collision matrix →
§ 03
Match by match
Cabo Verde's three group fixtures, each with the predicted win / draw / loss split and the single most-likely scoreline. Probabilities are this team's own orientation; they sum to 100%.
away
Cabo Verde Uruguay
10% win 24.1% draw 65.9% loss
Most likely 0–1 (17.5%) λ 0.52–1.72 Over 2.5 39% · BTTS 34%
home
Cabo Verde Saudi Arabia
28.7% win 32.5% draw 38.8% loss
Most likely 1–1 (14.5%) λ 0.92–1.11 Over 2.5 33% · BTTS 41%
How a match forecast is built
Each pairing is scored by the ensemble (Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled), producing an 11×11 scoreline grid that is marginalised into win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score. These are the same distributions the tournament simulator consumes, oriented here to Cabo Verde. Knockout fixtures are not shown — their occupants are still probabilistic, so there is no single pairing to forecast yet.
§ 04
Strength profile
Where Cabo Verde stands against the median of the 48-team field, metric by metric. The dot is Cabo Verde; the dashed line is the field median (1.0×).
Fig. D2 Relative to the 48-team median
Cabo Verde vs the field
Read each row as a multiple of the field median: dots to the right of the dashed line are above-field, to the left below. Raw values are labelled on the right so the comparison is transparent.
§ 05
History vs squad
The decoupling residual g — whether the squad’s market value sits above, or below, what the team’s record predicts.
Fig. D3 Bayesian projection residual g
Cabo Verde on the decoupling axis
g = −0.16 ± 0.07: the record outruns the squad price — the team has achieved more than its comparatively modest squad value would predict.
What g means — and its limits
g is the residual from regressing a team’s current squad market value on its
history-based strength in the Bayesian hierarchical model. Positive g
means the squad is valued above what the team’s record predicts; negative means the
record outruns the squad’s price (the side achieves more than its market value implies).
Regressed on out-of-sample success the slope is positive — squad-rich sides go a touch
further — but not statistically significant at n = 3 tournaments, so treat
a single team’s g as a descriptive read, not a hard prediction.
The full decoupling essay →
§ 06
The squad
All 26 selected players — club, league (with relative strength), club-season minutes and goals, caps. Sort any column.
26players
26.3mean age
19mean caps
12%in a top-5 league
26distinct clubs
1largest club bloc
| # | Player | Pos | Club | League | Club min | Gls | Caps | NT gls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vozinha | GK | Chaves | Segunda Liga +1.14z | 630 | 0 | 86 | 0 |
| 2 | Stopira | DF | Torreense | Segunda Liga +1.14z | 848 | 1 | 62 | 4 |
| 3 | Diney | DF | Al Bataeh | Pro League −0.09z | 1,972 | 1 | 30 | 2 |
| 4 | Roberto Lopes | DF | Shamrock Rovers | — | — no club data | — | 45 | 0 |
| 5 | Logan Costa | DF | Villarreal | La Liga +2.13z | 29 | 0 | 28 | 0 |
| 6 | Kevin Pina | MF | Krasnodar | Premier League +0.27z | 1,281 | 1 | 31 | 3 |
| 7 | Jovane Cabral | MF | Estrela Amadora | — | — no club data | — | 27 | 2 |
| 8 | João Paulo | MF | FCSB | Liga I | 1,170 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| 9 | Gilson Benchimol | FW | Akron Tolyatti | Premier League +0.27z | 1,272 | 10 | 22 | 6 |
| 10 | Jamiro Monteiro | MF | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie +0.74z | 1,455 | 2 | 55 | 5 |
| 11 | Garry Rodrigues | MF | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division −0.31z | 795 | 3 | 60 | 10 |
| 12 | Márcio Rosa | GK | Montana | First League | 1,170 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 | Sidny Lopes Cabral | DF | Benfica | Primeira Liga +1.14z | 458 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| 14 | Deroy Duarte | MF | Ludogorets Razgrad | First League | 2,539 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| 15 | Laros Duarte | MF | Puskás Akadémia | — | — no club data | — | 13 | 1 |
| 16 | Yannick Semedo | MF | Farense | Segunda Liga +1.14z | 608 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Willy Semedo | MF | Omonia | — | — no club data | — | 38 | 3 |
| 18 | Telmo Arcanjo | MF | Vitória de Guimarães | Primeira Liga +1.14z | 1,258 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| 19 | Dailon Livramento | FW | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga +1.14z | 1,060 | 0 | 22 | 7 |
| 20 | Ryan Mendes (captain) | FW | Iğdır | — | — no club data | — | 98 | 22 |
| 21 | Nuno da Costa | MF | İstanbul Başakşehir | Süper Lig +0.49z | 1,183 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 22 | Steven Moreira | DF | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer −0.71z | 3,112 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| 23 | CJ dos Santos | GK | San Diego FC | Major League Soccer −0.71z | 2,838 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Wagner Pina | DF | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig +0.49z | 5,013 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 | Kelvin Pires | DF | SJK | Veikkausliiga | 907 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 26 | Hélio Varela | MF | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al −0.55z | 1,925 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
Source · Official squad announcements · API-Football (global club coverage). 5 of 26 players have no club season matched in API-Football — shown as “— no club data”, not imputed. Form coverage for this squad: 81%.
§ 07
Tournament context
The host-nation environment this team meets — diaspora support, climate and altitude exposure at their venues, language familiarity.
Diaspora in the hosts
36,257
69.0 per 1,000 of home population
Host-language familiarity
Foreign
primary language Portuguese
Climate adaptation gap
+0.6°C
home-vs-venue heat differential
Venue extremes
47°C
peak heat index · altitude up to 313 m
Travel
4h
max time-zone shift · nearest venue 5,459 km
Source · UN DESA international migrant stock · US Census Bureau · Open-Meteo & venue records
§ 08
Elo trajectory
Cabo Verde's long-run strength against the qualified-field median, 1959–2026.
Fig. D4 eloratings.net method · year-end values
Cabo Verde — Elo since 1959
Cabo Verde Qualified-field median
Cabo Verde ends the series at 1654 Elo, the world’s 85th-ranked side — below the qualified-field median.
Which Elo is this?
This line is the public eloratings.net series (year-end ratings), which terminates exactly at the current rating and world rank shown on the marker. It is a different number from the Elo shown in the header band (a panel-normalised rating used inside the forecast); the two are ~0.99 correlated but on different scales. We keep them distinct rather than blend them.
§ 09
Data coverage
81% Squad club-form coverage Share of this squad with a matched club season feeding the global form layer.
81% Fitness-readiness coverage Where below 100%, part of the fitness signal is imputed by the de-biasing layer.
n = 3 Out-of-sample tournaments The model is validated on three held-out World Cups; it matches the market, it does not beat it.
Validated on n=3 held-out tournaments; coverage below 1.0 means part of this squad's club-form/fitness is imputed (the global de-biasing layer). For Cabo Verde, 5 of 26 players are shown as “— no club data”. Full validation, calibration & conformal coverage →