WC 2026 · Forecasting Oxford Football Forecasting

§ Bracket · the knockout draw · probabilistic

The knockout bracket

The official Round-of-32 → Final wiring of WC2026, drawn as a probabilistic tree. Each knockout slot is not yet a team — it is a distribution over who lands there, so every slot below shows the side most likely to fill it and the probability, shaded on the green prob-ramp. Hover or tap any team to light its most-likely path and read its round-by-round survival odds.

It is a stacked draw. Argentina and Spain — the two favourites — can be thrown together as early as the Round of 32; and the bottom half carries 53% of the title probability against 47% for the other.

  • 31knockout matches · R32→Final
  • 62probabilistic slot-sides
  • 100ksimulated tournaments
  • 48teams — every path tabled below

Source · FIFA · Oxford Football Forecasting model — the official knockout wiring, with slot occupancy from the same locked simulation that produced the forecast, so the bracket and the forecast pages agree exactly.

§ 01

The probabilistic bracket

The real draw, R32 to Final. Each slot lists the team(s) most likely to occupy it; the bar under a slot is the leader's occupancy probability (green prob-ramp). Where no team owns a slot, it reads as the field — never an invented favourite. Hover a team to light its expected path.

Light a path:

Hover, tap or focus a team — anywhere in the bracket or here. Click to pin.

Round of 32 16 matches

M74 29 Jun
1E
3ABCDF open
  • +16 more · the field 41%
M77 30 Jun
1I
3CDFGH open
  • +16 more · the field 40%
M73 28 Jun
2A open
2B
M75 30 Jun
1F
2C
M83 2 Jul
2K open
2L
M84 2 Jul
1H
2J open
M81 2 Jul
1D open
3BEFIJ open
  • +16 more · the field 34%
M82 1 Jul
1G
3AEHIJ open
  • +16 more · the field 33%
M76 29 Jun
1C
2F open
M78 30 Jun
2E
2I open
M79 1 Jul
1A
3CEFHI open
  • +16 more · the field 44%
M80 1 Jul
1L
3EHIJK open
  • +16 more · the field 36%
M86 3 Jul
1J
2H
M88 3 Jul
2D open
2G open
M85 3 Jul
1B
3EFGIJ open
  • +16 more · the field 38%
M87 4 Jul
1K
3DEIJL open
  • +16 more · the field 37%

Round of 16 8 matches

M89 4 Jul
R16·A open
  • +22 more · the field 43%
R16·B
  • +22 more · the field 38%
M90 4 Jul
R16·A open
  • +6 more · the field 60%
R16·B open
  • +6 more · the field 47%
M93 6 Jul
R16·A open
  • +6 more · the field 53%
R16·B
  • +6 more · the field 31%
M94 7 Jul
R16·A open
  • +22 more · the field 64%
R16·B open
  • +22 more · the field 47%
M91 5 Jul
R16·A
  • +6 more · the field 40%
R16·B open
  • +6 more · the field 59%
M92 6 Jul
R16·A open
  • +22 more · the field 56%
R16·B
  • +22 more · the field 34%
M95 7 Jul
R16·A
  • +6 more · the field 26%
R16·B open
  • +6 more · the field 66%
M96 7 Jul
R16·A open
  • +22 more · the field 47%
R16·B open
  • +22 more · the field 33%

Quarter-finals 4 matches

M97 9 Jul
QF·A open
  • +32 more · the field 52%
QF·B open
  • +14 more · the field 64%
M98 10 Jul
QF·A open
  • +14 more · the field 50%
QF·B open
  • +34 more · the field 64%
M99 11 Jul
QF·A open
  • +14 more · the field 59%
QF·B open
  • +34 more · the field 52%
M100 12 Jul
QF·A
  • +14 more · the field 45%
QF·B open
  • +34 more · the field 55%

Semi-finals 2 matches

M101 14 Jul
SF·A open
  • +33 more · the field 67%
SF·B open
  • +41 more · the field 59%
M102 15 Jul
SF·A open
  • +33 more · the field 61%
SF·B open
  • +37 more · the field 55%

Final 1 match

M104 19 Jul
Final·A open
  • +43 more · the field 60%
Final·B open
  • +43 more · the field 56%

Each slot bar is the team's P(occupies this slot) on the green ramp (darker = likelier). A slot tagged open has no occupant above 40% — its “+N · the field” chip carries the remaining occupancy mass, never a single invented team. The most-certain R32 slot is Spain (76% of slot M84 side A); the most open is Egypt at just 20%. Knockout teams are TBD until the groups finish — these are probabilities, not fixtures.

How the bracket slots are filled (and what they are not)

The wiring — which Round-of-32 tie feeds which Round-of-16 match, and so on to the Final — is the official 2026 bracket, taken verbatim from the published fixtures and their slot codes (1A, 2B, 3CEFHI …). The third-place play-off (match 103) is not part of the single-elimination tree, so it has no slot here.

Slot occupancy comes from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produced the forecast, by recording which team lands in each slot-side across the simulations. Side A and side B of each tie are the fixtures' home and away slots respectively. Because it is the same run, summing a team's slot occupancies back up reproduces its reach-stage probabilities on the forecast page exactly — the bracket and the forecast cannot disagree. Each chip carries the occupancy probability and its Monte-Carlo standard error in the tooltip.

A slot with no dominant occupant is shown as the field, with the residual mass and the count of teams that can reach it — a sub-plurality team is never promoted to “the occupant”. Hovering a team lights the slot it most-likely occupies in each round (its modal path); a team's true reach probability for a round (shown in the rail) is the sum over all the slots it could occupy, so it is generally higher than any single slot's occupancy.

§ 02

The full field — every team's path

All 48 teams, with the probability of reaching each round and the deepest round each side reaches in at least half of the simulations. Click any column to sort.

# Team Grp R32 R16 QF SF Final Champion Deepest likely round
1🇦🇷ArgentinaJ98.3%69.3%54.1%38.7%25.6%16.45%Quarter-finals
2🇪🇸SpainH99.2%71.4%50.4%38.6%25.6%15.95%Quarter-finals
3🇧🇷BrazilC98.3%67.1%44.8%27.9%15.8%8.98%Round of 16
4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL97.5%68.9%46.3%28.1%16.1%8.96%Round of 16
5🇫🇷FranceI95.2%68.1%44.3%28.3%16.1%8.94%Round of 16
6🇵🇹PortugalK93.8%64.4%39.6%22.3%12.1%6.16%Round of 16
7🇳🇱NetherlandsF92.3%52.2%34.9%19.8%10.0%4.85%Round of 16
8🇨🇴ColombiaK91.4%57.9%33.0%17.6%8.9%4.09%Round of 16
9🇩🇪GermanyE98.1%62.5%32.8%18.0%8.7%3.89%Round of 16
10🇧🇪BelgiumG93.9%61.9%34.0%13.8%6.3%2.48%Round of 16
11🇳🇴NorwayI87.7%50.8%26.4%13.2%5.8%2.42%Round of 16
12🇲🇦MoroccoC88.8%44.9%24.6%11.7%4.9%1.97%Round of 32
13🇪🇨EcuadorE93.3%50.7%23.3%11.0%4.7%1.87%Round of 16
14🇭🇷CroatiaL90.3%47.0%22.0%10.6%4.5%1.78%Round of 32
15🇨🇭SwitzerlandB96.2%60.6%27.8%11.4%4.6%1.72%Round of 16
16🇯🇵JapanF83.1%37.9%20.9%10.0%4.2%1.65%Round of 32
17🇺🇾UruguayH89.6%37.2%19.6%9.4%3.8%1.37%Round of 32
18🇲🇽MexicoA92.7%54.5%23.2%8.9%3.3%1.14%Round of 16
19🇹🇷TürkiyeD76.7%43.7%19.4%7.3%2.9%1.03%Round of 32
20🇦🇹AustriaJ76.7%28.6%12.8%5.1%1.9%0.55%Round of 32
21🇵🇾ParaguayD69.2%35.6%14.0%4.9%1.7%0.54%Round of 32
22🇸🇳SenegalI69.3%30.1%12.5%4.5%1.4%0.45%Round of 32
23🇮🇷IR IranG79.4%39.5%14.6%4.6%1.5%0.45%Round of 32
24🇨🇦CanadaB91.8%44.4%14.8%4.2%1.2%0.31%Round of 32
25🇩🇿AlgeriaJ70.1%24.6%9.8%3.4%1.1%0.29%Round of 32
26🇨🇿CzechiaA73.4%35.6%12.6%3.6%1.0%0.28%Round of 32
27🇦🇺AustraliaD61.3%28.6%10.1%3.2%1.0%0.25%Round of 32
28🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireE80.2%31.8%10.8%3.2%0.8%0.23%Round of 32
29🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC70.4%25.5%9.6%3.0%0.9%0.22%Round of 32
30🇰🇷Korea RepublicA68.4%31.8%11.1%3.0%0.9%0.22%Round of 32
31🇺🇸USAD67.2%29.4%9.4%2.6%0.7%0.17%Round of 32
32🇸🇪SwedenF60.2%17.8%6.7%2.2%0.6%0.15%Round of 32
33🇪🇬EgyptG67.6%28.1%8.4%2.2%0.6%0.12%Round of 32
34🇺🇿UzbekistanK36.4%8.4%2.1%0.4%0.1%0.02%Group stage
35🇨🇩Congo DRK40.2%10.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%0.02%Group stage
36🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB60.1%19.2%4.6%0.7%0.1%0.02%Round of 32
37🇹🇳TunisiaF33.2%6.6%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.01%Group stage
38🇵🇦PanamaL34.8%6.7%1.5%0.3%0.0%0.01%Group stage
39🇿🇦South AfricaA34.7%10.1%2.2%0.3%0.1%0.01%Group stage
40🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH35.1%6.5%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.00%Group stage
41🇬🇭GhanaL36.0%6.7%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.00%Group stage
42🇮🇶IraqI17.6%3.6%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.00%Group stage
43🇨🇻Cabo VerdeH27.3%4.5%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.00%Group stage
44🇨🇼CuraçaoE5.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00%Group stage
45🇶🇦QatarB18.2%2.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.00%Group stage
46🇳🇿New ZealandG27.6%6.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.00%Group stage
47🇭🇹HaitiC11.6%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.00%Group stage
48🇯🇴JordanJ20.4%3.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.00%Group stage

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — reach probabilities are the same stage probabilities as the forecast page; “deepest likely round” is the latest round with a reach probability of at least 50%.

§ 03

The collision matrix

For the eight strongest contenders, the earliest round the draw could throw each pair together. The bracket is unkind at the top: several heavyweight pairs share a slot-path long before the Final.

Fig. V6 Top-8 × top-8 · official bracket wiring

Earliest possible meeting — the top eight

🇦🇷 Argentina Argentina v Spain — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1J) vs 2nd(2H) (R32 tie 13: 1J vs 2H) R32 Argentina v Brazil — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-C->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Argentina v England — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t7 vs 1st(1L) (R32 tie 7: 3EHIJK vs 1L) R32 Argentina v France — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-I->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Argentina v Portugal — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 Argentina v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-F->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Argentina v Colombia — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 🇪🇸 Spain Spain v Argentina — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1J) vs 2nd(2H) (R32 tie 13: 1J vs 2H) R32 Spain v Brazil — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-H->t4,3rd-of-C->t1 same R16 tie 0 R16 Spain v England — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-H->t7 vs 1st(1L) (R32 tie 7: 3EHIJK vs 1L) R32 Spain v France — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-H->t4 vs 1st(1I) (R32 tie 4: 3CDFGH vs 1I) R32 Spain v Portugal — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1H),2nd(2K) same R16 tie 4 R16 Spain v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-H->t4,3rd-of-F->t1 same R16 tie 0 R16 Spain v Colombia — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1H),2nd(2K) same R16 tie 4 R16 🇧🇷 Brazil Brazil v Argentina — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-C->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Brazil v Spain — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-H->t4,3rd-of-C->t1 same R16 tie 0 R16 Brazil v England — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,1st(1L) same R16 tie 3 R16 Brazil v France — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-C->t4 vs 1st(1I) (R32 tie 4: 3CDFGH vs 1I) R32 Brazil v Portugal — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16 Brazil v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1C) vs 2nd(2F) (R32 tie 3: 1C vs 2F) R32 Brazil v Colombia — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England England v Argentina — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t7 vs 1st(1L) (R32 tie 7: 3EHIJK vs 1L) R32 England v Spain — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-H->t7 vs 1st(1L) (R32 tie 7: 3EHIJK vs 1L) R32 England v Brazil — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,1st(1L) same R16 tie 3 R16 England v France — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-I->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 England v Portugal — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-K->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 England v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1L),3rd-of-F->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 England v Colombia — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-K->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 🇫🇷 France France v Argentina — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-I->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 France v Spain — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-H->t4 vs 1st(1I) (R32 tie 4: 3CDFGH vs 1I) R32 France v Brazil — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-C->t4 vs 1st(1I) (R32 tie 4: 3CDFGH vs 1I) R32 France v England — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-I->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 France v Portugal — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-I->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 France v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1I) vs 3rd-of-F->t4 (R32 tie 4: 1I vs 3CDFGH) R32 France v Colombia — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-I->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 🇵🇹 Portugal Portugal v Argentina — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 Portugal v Spain — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1H),2nd(2K) same R16 tie 4 R16 Portugal v Brazil — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16 Portugal v England — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-K->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 Portugal v France — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-I->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 Portugal v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1K),3rd-of-F->t12 same R16 tie 7 R16 Portugal v Colombia — earliest: Semi-final. 1st(1K),3rd-of-K->t7 same half 1 SF 🇳🇱 Netherl. Netherlands v Argentina — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-J->t7,3rd-of-F->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Netherlands v Spain — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-H->t4,3rd-of-F->t1 same R16 tie 0 R16 Netherlands v Brazil — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1C) vs 2nd(2F) (R32 tie 3: 1C vs 2F) R32 Netherlands v England — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1L),3rd-of-F->t6 same R16 tie 3 R16 Netherlands v France — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1I) vs 3rd-of-F->t4 (R32 tie 4: 1I vs 3CDFGH) R32 Netherlands v Portugal — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1K),3rd-of-F->t12 same R16 tie 7 R16 Netherlands v Colombia — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-F->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16 🇨🇴 Colombia Colombia v Argentina — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-J->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 Colombia v Spain — earliest: Round of 16. 1st(1H),2nd(2K) same R16 tie 4 R16 Colombia v Brazil — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-C->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16 Colombia v England — earliest: Round of 32. 1st(1L) vs 3rd-of-K->t7 (R32 tie 7: 1L vs 3EHIJK) R32 Colombia v France — earliest: Round of 32. 3rd-of-I->t14 vs 1st(1K) (R32 tie 14: 3DEIJL vs 1K) R32 Colombia v Portugal — earliest: Semi-final. 1st(1K),3rd-of-K->t7 same half 1 SF Colombia v Netherlands — earliest: Round of 16. 3rd-of-F->t6,3rd-of-K->t7 same R16 tie 3 R16
Cell = the earliest round the two teams' bracket paths can intersect, given the official wiring and which slot each team feeds as a group winner / runner-up / best third. Read it as collision risk, not a prediction that they will meet. The diagonal is blank (a team cannot draw itself); the matrix is symmetric.

The draw stacks the favourites: Argentina and Spain can meet in the Round of 32 — 14 of the 28 top-8 pairs can collide as early as the Round of 32, and 13 more by the Round of 16. Only Portugal and Colombia are kept apart until the Semi-finals.

Source · FIFA · Oxford Football Forecasting model — earliest meeting derived from the official wiring and group-exit slot codes
  • R32 Argentina Spain Earliest in the Round of 32 · groups J/H
  • R32 Argentina England Earliest in the Round of 32 · groups J/L
  • R32 Argentina Portugal Earliest in the Round of 32 · groups J/K
  • R32 Argentina Colombia Earliest in the Round of 32 · groups J/K

§ 04

Half & quadrant balance

Single-elimination is a draw of geography: title probability is not spread evenly across the bracket. Here is where the strength is stacked — the heavier half meets earlier, so its contenders eliminate each other sooner.

Fig. V5a Σ champion probability · two halves

Title probability by bracket half

Top half 24 teams
46.8%

led by 🇪🇸 Spain (16.0%) , then France (8.9%)

Bottom half heavier 24 teams
53.2%

led by 🇦🇷 Argentina (16.5%) , then Brazil (9.0%)

The bottom half is the heavier draw — 53.2% of the title probability versus 46.8%. Its contenders share a path to the Final, so several must knock each other out before it.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — Σ over the 24 teams routed into each half

Fig. V5b Σ champion probability · four quarters

…and by quarter of the draw

Quarter 1 top half 24.5%
Quarter 2 top half 22.4%
Quarter 3 bottom half 23.5%
Quarter 4 bottom half 29.6%
group of death
The four quarter bars are scaled to the heaviest quarter, so the comparison is relative. Each quarter sends one team to the semi-finals; a contender in Quarter 4 faces the steepest path because the title probability there is the most concentrated.

Quarter 4 is the bracket's group of death — 29.6% of the title in one eighth of the field, headed by Argentina. Its winner reaches the semi-finals having already survived the toughest quarter.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model — Σ over the 12 teams in each quarter
Why bracket geography matters

The 48-team bracket splits into two halves (the two semi-final feeders) and four quarters (the four quarter-final feeders). A team's half and quarter are fixed by where its group's winners, runners-up and best-thirds are routed — the same official wiring drawn above. Because each half sends exactly one team to the Final and each quarter exactly one to the semi-finals, a half or quarter that is heavy with title probability forces its strong teams onto a collision course earlier than a light one. That is the structural reason the collision matrix above is so warm at the top, and it is the “power vs the draw” story the rankings page quantifies as draw-luck.