The schedule
Every match, forecast
All 104 fixtures of WC2026 — 72 group games carry the locked ensemble’s win/draw/loss split, the most-likely scoreline and the over-2.5 rate; the 32 knockout ties show only their slot matchup, because their occupants are still probabilistic. Open any group fixture for the full scoreline grid.
No fixtures match these filters. .
§ MD1
Group stage · Matchday 1
Opening round — every nation’s first fixture.
- Group A M1Thu 11 Jun 19:00 UTCW 68.8 D 21.2 W 10ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 48% · xG 1.98–0.62Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
- Group A M2Fri 12 Jun 02:00 UTCW 33.5 D 30.6 W 35.9ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.12–1.17Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
- Group B M3Fri 12 Jun 19:00 UTCW 55.8 D 26.4 W 17.8ML 1–0 (13%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.64–0.83Toronto Stadium · Toronto
- Group D M4Sat 13 Jun 01:00 UTCW 35.5 D 29.7 W 34.8ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.21–1.20Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
- Group B M8Sat 13 Jun 19:00 UTCW 5.1 D 14.4 W 80.5ML 0–2 (15%) O2.5 59% · xG 0.53–2.53San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
- Group C M7Sat 13 Jun 22:00 UTCW 47 D 31.3 W 21.7ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 33% · xG 1.27–0.77New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
- Group C M5Sun 14 Jun 01:00 UTCW 12.7 D 23.7 W 63.6ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 46% · xG 0.69–1.81Boston Stadium · Foxborough
- Group D M6Sun 14 Jun 04:00 UTCW 28.8 D 30.6 W 40.6ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.00–1.24BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
- Group E M10Sun 14 Jun 17:00 UTCW 93.5 D 5.2 W 1.3ML 3–0 (13%) O2.5 80% · xG 3.85–0.44Houston Stadium · Houston
- Group F M11Sun 14 Jun 20:00 UTCW 42.2 D 30.9 W 26.9ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.25–0.94Dallas Stadium · Arlington
- Group E M9Sun 14 Jun 23:00 UTCW 21.5 D 33.6 W 44.9ML 0–0 (17%) O2.5 28% · xG 0.70–1.13Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
- Group F M12Mon 15 Jun 02:00 UTCW 46.6 D 30.5 W 22.9ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.31–0.84Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
- Group H M14Mon 15 Jun 16:00 UTCW 85.4 D 11.5 W 3.1ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 60% · xG 2.70–0.39Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- Group G M16Mon 15 Jun 19:00 UTCW 52.9 D 28.5 W 18.6ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.47–0.77Seattle Stadium · Seattle
- Group H M13Mon 15 Jun 22:00 UTCW 11.3 D 25.5 W 63.2ML 0–1 (18%) O2.5 37% · xG 0.55–1.63Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
- Group G M15Tue 16 Jun 01:00 UTCW 58.1 D 27.2 W 14.7ML 1–0 (16%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.56–0.66Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
- Group I M17Tue 16 Jun 19:00 UTCW 56.8 D 27.2 W 16ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.56–0.71New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
- Group I M18Tue 16 Jun 22:00 UTCW 8.1 D 20 W 71.9ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 47% · xG 0.54–2.03Boston Stadium · Foxborough
- Group J M19Wed 17 Jun 01:00 UTCW 64.3 D 24.6 W 11.1ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.70–0.56Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
- Group J M20Wed 17 Jun 04:00 UTCW 61.4 D 24.5 W 14.1ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.76–0.72San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
- Group K M23Wed 17 Jun 17:00 UTCW 65.4 D 24.2 W 10.4ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.72–0.54Houston Stadium · Houston
- Group L M22Wed 17 Jun 20:00 UTCW 47.8 D 30.5 W 21.7ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 36% · xG 1.32–0.80Dallas Stadium · Arlington
- Group L M21Wed 17 Jun 23:00 UTCW 33 D 32.1 W 34.9ML 1–1 (15%) O2.5 35% · xG 1.03–1.07Toronto Stadium · Toronto
- Group K M24Thu 18 Jun 02:00 UTCW 10.6 D 23.4 W 66ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 42% · xG 0.58–1.79Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
§ MD2
Group stage · Matchday 2
Second round of the group phase.
- Group A M25Thu 18 Jun 16:00 UTCW 51.1 D 29.2 W 19.7ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.41–0.78Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- Group B M26Thu 18 Jun 19:00 UTCW 62.2 D 24.2 W 13.6ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.78–0.71Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
- Group B M27Thu 18 Jun 22:00 UTCW 77.4 D 16.2 W 6.4ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 57% · xG 2.39–0.57BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
- Group A M28Fri 19 Jun 01:00 UTCW 56.1 D 25.7 W 18.2ML 1–1 (12%) O2.5 48% · xG 1.70–0.88Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
- Group D M32Fri 19 Jun 19:00 UTCW 38.6 D 29.1 W 32.3ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.31–1.17Seattle Stadium · Seattle
- Group C M30Fri 19 Jun 22:00 UTCW 21.3 D 32.8 W 45.9ML 0–1 (17%) O2.5 29% · xG 0.71–1.18Boston Stadium · Foxborough
- Group C M29Sat 20 Jun 01:00 UTCW 90.5 D 7.4 W 2.1ML 3–0 (14%) O2.5 74% · xG 3.42–0.46Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
- Group D M31Sat 20 Jun 04:00 UTCW 37.7 D 31.3 W 31ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.16–1.02San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
- Group F M35Sat 20 Jun 17:00 UTCW 58.6 D 24.7 W 16.7ML 1–0 (12%) O2.5 49% · xG 1.79–0.85Houston Stadium · Houston
- Group E M33Sat 20 Jun 20:00 UTCW 56.1 D 26.2 W 17.7ML 1–0 (13%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.65–0.82Toronto Stadium · Toronto
- Group E M34Sun 21 Jun 00:00 UTCW 82.3 D 14.1 W 3.6ML 2–0 (18%) O2.5 51% · xG 2.38–0.35Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
- Group F M36Sun 21 Jun 04:00 UTCW 14.1 D 28.7 W 57.2ML 0–1 (18%) O2.5 33% · xG 0.58–1.43Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
- Group H M38Sun 21 Jun 16:00 UTCW 85.7 D 11.2 W 3.1ML 2–0 (16%) O2.5 62% · xG 2.78–0.42Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- Group G M39Sun 21 Jun 19:00 UTCW 48.2 D 28.6 W 23.2ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 42% · xG 1.45–0.93Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
- Group H M37Sun 21 Jun 22:00 UTCW 65.9 D 24.1 W 10ML 1–0 (18%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.72–0.52Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
- Group G M40Mon 22 Jun 01:00 UTCW 18.6 D 31.3 W 50.1ML 0–1 (17%) O2.5 31% · xG 0.67–1.28BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
- Group J M43Mon 22 Jun 17:00 UTCW 61.4 D 26.1 W 12.5ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.61–0.59Dallas Stadium · Arlington
- Group I M42Mon 22 Jun 21:00 UTCW 78.2 D 16.6 W 5.2ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 50% · xG 2.24–0.44Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
- Group I M41Tue 23 Jun 00:00 UTCW 45.7 D 29.8 W 24.5ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.35–0.92New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
- Group J M44Tue 23 Jun 03:00 UTCW 15.4 D 26.1 W 58.5ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 43% · xG 0.73–1.65San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
- Group K M47Tue 23 Jun 17:00 UTCW 70.4 D 20.7 W 8.9ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 47% · xG 1.99–0.57Houston Stadium · Houston
- Group L M45Tue 23 Jun 20:00 UTCW 74.5 D 19.1 W 6.4ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 45% · xG 2.03–0.44Boston Stadium · Foxborough
- Group L M46Tue 23 Jun 23:00 UTCW 11.4 D 22.8 W 65.8ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 46% · xG 0.65–1.87Toronto Stadium · Toronto
- Group K M48Wed 24 Jun 02:00 UTCW 61.6 D 26.4 W 12ML 1–0 (18%) O2.5 36% · xG 1.58–0.56Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
§ MD3
Group stage · Matchday 3
Final group round — simultaneous kick-offs decide qualification.
- Group B M51Wed 24 Jun 19:00 UTCW 46 D 29.9 W 24.1ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.35–0.90BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
- Group B M52Wed 24 Jun 19:00 UTCW 53.4 D 27.7 W 18.9ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 42% · xG 1.53–0.81Seattle Stadium · Seattle
- Group C M49Wed 24 Jun 22:00 UTCW 12.7 D 22.9 W 64.4ML 0–2 (13%) O2.5 48% · xG 0.72–1.89Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
- Group C M50Wed 24 Jun 22:00 UTCW 73 D 20.1 W 6.9ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.96–0.45Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- Group A M53Thu 25 Jun 01:00 UTCW 23.7 D 28.3 W 48ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 44% · xG 0.96–1.47Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
- Group A M54Thu 25 Jun 01:00 UTCW 20.3 D 30.9 W 48.8ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 34% · xG 0.75–1.30Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
- Group E M55Thu 25 Jun 20:00 UTCW 7.3 D 18.7 W 74ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 49% · xG 0.53–2.13Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
- Group E M56Thu 25 Jun 20:00 UTCW 29.4 D 30.7 W 39.9ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.02–1.23New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
- Group F M57Thu 25 Jun 23:00 UTCW 48 D 29.2 W 22.8ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.40–0.89Dallas Stadium · Arlington
- Group F M58Thu 25 Jun 23:00 UTCW 9.5 D 22.2 W 68.3ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 44% · xG 0.56–1.87Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
- Group D M59Fri 26 Jun 02:00 UTCW 43.6 D 28.3 W 28.1ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 47% · xG 1.44–1.11Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
- Group D M60Fri 26 Jun 02:00 UTCW 37.5 D 34.4 W 28.1ML 0–0 (17%) O2.5 28% · xG 1.01–0.83San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
- Group I M61Fri 26 Jun 19:00 UTCW 24.5 D 29.6 W 45.9ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 0.93–1.37Boston Stadium · Foxborough
- Group I M62Fri 26 Jun 19:00 UTCW 57.8 D 27.6 W 14.6ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.52–0.64Toronto Stadium · Toronto
- Group H M65Sat 27 Jun 00:00 UTCW 28.7 D 32.5 W 38.8ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 33% · xG 0.92–1.11Houston Stadium · Houston
- Group H M66Sat 27 Jun 00:00 UTCW 16.9 D 27.8 W 55.3ML 0–1 (15%) O2.5 39% · xG 0.72–1.51Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
- Group G M63Sat 27 Jun 03:00 UTCW 27.5 D 32.7 W 39.8ML 0–0 (15%) O2.5 32% · xG 0.88–1.12Seattle Stadium · Seattle
- Group G M64Sat 27 Jun 03:00 UTCW 7.1 D 17.4 W 75.5ML 0–2 (15%) O2.5 54% · xG 0.57–2.27BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
- Group L M67Sat 27 Jun 21:00 UTCW 5.3 D 15.8 W 78.9ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 54% · xG 0.48–2.35New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
- Group L M68Sat 27 Jun 21:00 UTCW 64.6 D 23.9 W 11.5ML 1–0 (16%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.77–0.61Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
- Group K M71Sat 27 Jun 23:30 UTCW 31.9 D 31 W 37.1ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.06–1.17Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
- Group K M72Sat 27 Jun 23:30 UTCW 32.6 D 35 W 32.4ML 0–0 (18%) O2.5 27% · xG 0.91–0.90Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- Group J M69Sun 28 Jun 02:00 UTCW 30.3 D 31.1 W 38.6ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.02–1.18Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
- Group J M70Sun 28 Jun 02:00 UTCW 3.2 D 12 W 84.8ML 0–2 (17%) O2.5 59% · xG 0.39–2.65Dallas Stadium · Arlington
§ KO
Round of 32
First knockout round — 32 sides, 16 ties. Occupants are still probabilistic.
- Round of 32 M73Sun 28 Jun 19:00 UTC2A Runner-up Group A Runner-up Group B 2B
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood - Round of 32 M76Mon 29 Jun 17:00 UTC1C Winner Group C Runner-up Group F 2F
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Houston Stadium · Houston - Round of 32 M74Mon 29 Jun 20:30 UTC1E Winner Group E Best third · A/B/C/D/F A/B/C/D/F
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Boston Stadium · Foxborough - Round of 32 M75Tue 30 Jun 01:00 UTC1F Winner Group F Runner-up Group C 2C
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe - Round of 32 M78Tue 30 Jun 17:00 UTC2E Runner-up Group E Runner-up Group I 2I
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Dallas Stadium · Arlington - Round of 32 M77Tue 30 Jun 21:00 UTC1I Winner Group I Best third · C/D/F/G/H C/D/F/G/H
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford - Round of 32 M79Wed 1 Jul 01:00 UTC1A Winner Group A Best third · C/E/F/H/I C/E/F/H/I
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City - Round of 32 M80Wed 1 Jul 16:00 UTC1L Winner Group L Best third · E/H/I/J/K E/H/I/J/K
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta - Round of 32 M82Wed 1 Jul 20:00 UTC1G Winner Group G Best third · A/E/H/I/J A/E/H/I/J
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Seattle Stadium · Seattle - Round of 32 M81Thu 2 Jul 00:00 UTC1D Winner Group D Best third · B/E/F/I/J B/E/F/I/J
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara - Round of 32 M84Thu 2 Jul 19:00 UTC1H Winner Group H Runner-up Group J 2J
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood - Round of 32 M83Thu 2 Jul 23:00 UTC2K Runner-up Group K Runner-up Group L 2L
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Toronto Stadium · Toronto - Round of 32 M85Fri 3 Jul 03:00 UTC1B Winner Group B Best third · E/F/G/I/J E/F/G/I/J
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver - Round of 32 M88Fri 3 Jul 18:00 UTC2D Runner-up Group D Runner-up Group G 2G
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Dallas Stadium · Arlington - Round of 32 M86Fri 3 Jul 22:00 UTC1J Winner Group J Runner-up Group H 2H
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens - Round of 32 M87Sat 4 Jul 01:30 UTC1K Winner Group K Best third · D/E/I/J/L D/E/I/J/L
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
§ KO
Round of 16
Winners of the Round of 32 meet.
- Round of 16 M90Sat 4 Jul 17:00 UTCW M73 Winner of Match 73 Winner of Match 75 W M75
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Houston Stadium · Houston - Round of 16 M89Sat 4 Jul 21:00 UTCW M74 Winner of Match 74 Winner of Match 77 W M77
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia - Round of 16 M91Sun 5 Jul 20:00 UTCW M76 Winner of Match 76 Winner of Match 78 W M78
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford - Round of 16 M92Mon 6 Jul 00:00 UTCW M79 Winner of Match 79 Winner of Match 80 W M80
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City - Round of 16 M93Mon 6 Jul 19:00 UTCW M83 Winner of Match 83 Winner of Match 84 W M84
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Dallas Stadium · Arlington - Round of 16 M94Tue 7 Jul 00:00 UTCW M81 Winner of Match 81 Winner of Match 82 W M82
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Seattle Stadium · Seattle - Round of 16 M95Tue 7 Jul 16:00 UTCW M86 Winner of Match 86 Winner of Match 88 W M88
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta - Round of 16 M96Tue 7 Jul 20:00 UTCW M85 Winner of Match 85 Winner of Match 87 W M87
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
§ KO
Quarter-finals
The last eight.
- Quarter-final M97Thu 9 Jul 20:00 UTCW M89 Winner of Match 89 Winner of Match 90 W M90
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Boston Stadium · Foxborough - Quarter-final M98Fri 10 Jul 19:00 UTCW M93 Winner of Match 93 Winner of Match 94 W M94
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood - Quarter-final M99Sat 11 Jul 21:00 UTCW M91 Winner of Match 91 Winner of Match 92 W M92
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens - Quarter-final M100Sun 12 Jul 01:00 UTCW M95 Winner of Match 95 Winner of Match 96 W M96
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
§ KO
Semi-finals
The last four.
- Semi-final M101Tue 14 Jul 19:00 UTCW M97 Winner of Match 97 Winner of Match 98 W M98
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Dallas Stadium · Arlington - Semi-final M102Wed 15 Jul 19:00 UTCW M99 Winner of Match 99 Winner of Match 100 W M100
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
§ KO
Final & third-place play-off
The decider — and the play-off for third.
- Third-place play-off M103Sat 18 Jul 21:00 UTCTBC To be confirmed To be confirmed TBC
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams.
Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens - Final M104Sun 19 Jul 19:00 UTCW M101 Winner of Match 101 Winner of Match 102 W M102
Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →
New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
How these forecasts are built — and why knockout ties are blank
Every group pairing is scored by the locked ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — into an 11×11 scoreline grid, then marginalised into win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), the over-2.5 rate and both-teams-to-score. These are the same distributions the tournament simulator consumes. Win/draw/loss is shown to sum to exactly 100% (largest-remainder rounding).
Knockout fixtures carry no probabilities here because their occupants are not yet teams but bracket slots — “Winner Group A”, “Best third A/B/C/D/F”, “Winner of Match 89”. A single matchup forecast would put a number on a fixture that does not yet exist; instead the bracket shows each slot’s probabilistic occupants from the locked 100k simulation. The third-place play-off (Match 103) sits outside the simulated single-elimination tree, so it is listed for completeness only.
Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model · FIFA — match forecasts from the locked ensemble; schedule, knockout wiring and venues from the official fixture list.