WC 2026 · Forecasting Oxford Football Forecasting

The schedule

Every match, forecast

All 104 fixtures of WC2026 — 72 group games carry the locked ensemble’s win/draw/loss split, the most-likely scoreline and the over-2.5 rate; the 32 knockout ties show only their slot matchup, because their occupants are still probabilistic. Open any group fixture for the full scoreline grid.

  • Group A M1
    Thu 11 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Mexico South Africa
    W 68.8 D 21.2 W 10
    ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 48% · xG 1.98–0.62
    Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
  • Group A M2
    Fri 12 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Korea Republic Czechia
    W 33.5 D 30.6 W 35.9
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.12–1.17
    Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
  • Group B M3
    Fri 12 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Canada Bosnia and Herzegovina
    W 55.8 D 26.4 W 17.8
    ML 1–0 (13%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.64–0.83
    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Group D M4
    Sat 13 Jun 01:00 UTC
    USA Paraguay
    W 35.5 D 29.7 W 34.8
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.21–1.20
    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Group B M8
    Sat 13 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Qatar Switzerland
    W 5.1 D 14.4 W 80.5
    ML 0–2 (15%) O2.5 59% · xG 0.53–2.53
    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Group C M7
    Sat 13 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Brazil Morocco
    W 47 D 31.3 W 21.7
    ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 33% · xG 1.27–0.77
    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Group C M5
    Sun 14 Jun 01:00 UTC
    Haiti Scotland
    W 12.7 D 23.7 W 63.6
    ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 46% · xG 0.69–1.81
    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Group D M6
    Sun 14 Jun 04:00 UTC
    Australia Türkiye
    W 28.8 D 30.6 W 40.6
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.00–1.24
    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Group E M10
    Sun 14 Jun 17:00 UTC
    Germany Curaçao
    W 93.5 D 5.2 W 1.3
    ML 3–0 (13%) O2.5 80% · xG 3.85–0.44
    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Group F M11
    Sun 14 Jun 20:00 UTC
    Netherlands Japan
    W 42.2 D 30.9 W 26.9
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.25–0.94
    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Group E M9
    Sun 14 Jun 23:00 UTC
    Côte d'Ivoire Ecuador
    W 21.5 D 33.6 W 44.9
    ML 0–0 (17%) O2.5 28% · xG 0.70–1.13
    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Group F M12
    Mon 15 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Sweden Tunisia
    W 46.6 D 30.5 W 22.9
    ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.31–0.84
    Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
  • Group H M14
    Mon 15 Jun 16:00 UTC
    Spain Cabo Verde
    W 85.4 D 11.5 W 3.1
    ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 60% · xG 2.70–0.39
    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Group G M16
    Mon 15 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Belgium Egypt
    W 52.9 D 28.5 W 18.6
    ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.47–0.77
    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Group H M13
    Mon 15 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Saudi Arabia Uruguay
    W 11.3 D 25.5 W 63.2
    ML 0–1 (18%) O2.5 37% · xG 0.55–1.63
    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Group G M15
    Tue 16 Jun 01:00 UTC
    IR Iran New Zealand
    W 58.1 D 27.2 W 14.7
    ML 1–0 (16%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.56–0.66
    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Group I M17
    Tue 16 Jun 19:00 UTC
    France Senegal
    W 56.8 D 27.2 W 16
    ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.56–0.71
    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Group I M18
    Tue 16 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Iraq Norway
    W 8.1 D 20 W 71.9
    ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 47% · xG 0.54–2.03
    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Group J M19
    Wed 17 Jun 01:00 UTC
    Argentina Algeria
    W 64.3 D 24.6 W 11.1
    ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.70–0.56
    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Group J M20
    Wed 17 Jun 04:00 UTC
    Austria Jordan
    W 61.4 D 24.5 W 14.1
    ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.76–0.72
    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Group K M23
    Wed 17 Jun 17:00 UTC
    Portugal Congo DR
    W 65.4 D 24.2 W 10.4
    ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.72–0.54
    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Group L M22
    Wed 17 Jun 20:00 UTC
    England Croatia
    W 47.8 D 30.5 W 21.7
    ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 36% · xG 1.32–0.80
    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Group L M21
    Wed 17 Jun 23:00 UTC
    Ghana Panama
    W 33 D 32.1 W 34.9
    ML 1–1 (15%) O2.5 35% · xG 1.03–1.07
    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Group K M24
    Thu 18 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Uzbekistan Colombia
    W 10.6 D 23.4 W 66
    ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 42% · xG 0.58–1.79
    Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
  • Group A M25
    Thu 18 Jun 16:00 UTC
    Czechia South Africa
    W 51.1 D 29.2 W 19.7
    ML 1–0 (15%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.41–0.78
    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Group B M26
    Thu 18 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Switzerland Bosnia and Herzegovina
    W 62.2 D 24.2 W 13.6
    ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.78–0.71
    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Group B M27
    Thu 18 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Canada Qatar
    W 77.4 D 16.2 W 6.4
    ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 57% · xG 2.39–0.57
    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Group A M28
    Fri 19 Jun 01:00 UTC
    Mexico Korea Republic
    W 56.1 D 25.7 W 18.2
    ML 1–1 (12%) O2.5 48% · xG 1.70–0.88
    Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
  • Group D M32
    Fri 19 Jun 19:00 UTC
    USA Australia
    W 38.6 D 29.1 W 32.3
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.31–1.17
    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Group C M30
    Fri 19 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Scotland Morocco
    W 21.3 D 32.8 W 45.9
    ML 0–1 (17%) O2.5 29% · xG 0.71–1.18
    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Group C M29
    Sat 20 Jun 01:00 UTC
    Brazil Haiti
    W 90.5 D 7.4 W 2.1
    ML 3–0 (14%) O2.5 74% · xG 3.42–0.46
    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Group D M31
    Sat 20 Jun 04:00 UTC
    Türkiye Paraguay
    W 37.7 D 31.3 W 31
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.16–1.02
    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Group F M35
    Sat 20 Jun 17:00 UTC
    Netherlands Sweden
    W 58.6 D 24.7 W 16.7
    ML 1–0 (12%) O2.5 49% · xG 1.79–0.85
    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Group E M33
    Sat 20 Jun 20:00 UTC
    Germany Côte d'Ivoire
    W 56.1 D 26.2 W 17.7
    ML 1–0 (13%) O2.5 45% · xG 1.65–0.82
    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Group E M34
    Sun 21 Jun 00:00 UTC
    Ecuador Curaçao
    W 82.3 D 14.1 W 3.6
    ML 2–0 (18%) O2.5 51% · xG 2.38–0.35
    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Group F M36
    Sun 21 Jun 04:00 UTC
    Tunisia Japan
    W 14.1 D 28.7 W 57.2
    ML 0–1 (18%) O2.5 33% · xG 0.58–1.43
    Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
  • Group H M38
    Sun 21 Jun 16:00 UTC
    Spain Saudi Arabia
    W 85.7 D 11.2 W 3.1
    ML 2–0 (16%) O2.5 62% · xG 2.78–0.42
    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Group G M39
    Sun 21 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Belgium IR Iran
    W 48.2 D 28.6 W 23.2
    ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 42% · xG 1.45–0.93
    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Group H M37
    Sun 21 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Uruguay Cabo Verde
    W 65.9 D 24.1 W 10
    ML 1–0 (18%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.72–0.52
    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Group G M40
    Mon 22 Jun 01:00 UTC
    New Zealand Egypt
    W 18.6 D 31.3 W 50.1
    ML 0–1 (17%) O2.5 31% · xG 0.67–1.28
    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Group J M43
    Mon 22 Jun 17:00 UTC
    Argentina Austria
    W 61.4 D 26.1 W 12.5
    ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.61–0.59
    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Group I M42
    Mon 22 Jun 21:00 UTC
    France Iraq
    W 78.2 D 16.6 W 5.2
    ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 50% · xG 2.24–0.44
    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Group I M41
    Tue 23 Jun 00:00 UTC
    Norway Senegal
    W 45.7 D 29.8 W 24.5
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.35–0.92
    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Group J M44
    Tue 23 Jun 03:00 UTC
    Jordan Algeria
    W 15.4 D 26.1 W 58.5
    ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 43% · xG 0.73–1.65
    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Group K M47
    Tue 23 Jun 17:00 UTC
    Portugal Uzbekistan
    W 70.4 D 20.7 W 8.9
    ML 2–0 (15%) O2.5 47% · xG 1.99–0.57
    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Group L M45
    Tue 23 Jun 20:00 UTC
    England Ghana
    W 74.5 D 19.1 W 6.4
    ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 45% · xG 2.03–0.44
    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Group L M46
    Tue 23 Jun 23:00 UTC
    Panama Croatia
    W 11.4 D 22.8 W 65.8
    ML 0–1 (14%) O2.5 46% · xG 0.65–1.87
    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Group K M48
    Wed 24 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Colombia Congo DR
    W 61.6 D 26.4 W 12
    ML 1–0 (18%) O2.5 36% · xG 1.58–0.56
    Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
  • Group B M51
    Wed 24 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Switzerland Canada
    W 46 D 29.9 W 24.1
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.35–0.90
    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Group B M52
    Wed 24 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Bosnia and Herzegovina Qatar
    W 53.4 D 27.7 W 18.9
    ML 1–0 (14%) O2.5 42% · xG 1.53–0.81
    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Group C M49
    Wed 24 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Scotland Brazil
    W 12.7 D 22.9 W 64.4
    ML 0–2 (13%) O2.5 48% · xG 0.72–1.89
    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Group C M50
    Wed 24 Jun 22:00 UTC
    Morocco Haiti
    W 73 D 20.1 W 6.9
    ML 2–0 (17%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.96–0.45
    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Group A M53
    Thu 25 Jun 01:00 UTC
    Czechia Mexico
    W 23.7 D 28.3 W 48
    ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 44% · xG 0.96–1.47
    Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
  • Group A M54
    Thu 25 Jun 01:00 UTC
    South Africa Korea Republic
    W 20.3 D 30.9 W 48.8
    ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 34% · xG 0.75–1.30
    Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
  • Group E M55
    Thu 25 Jun 20:00 UTC
    Curaçao Côte d'Ivoire
    W 7.3 D 18.7 W 74
    ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 49% · xG 0.53–2.13
    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Group E M56
    Thu 25 Jun 20:00 UTC
    Ecuador Germany
    W 29.4 D 30.7 W 39.9
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.02–1.23
    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Group F M57
    Thu 25 Jun 23:00 UTC
    Japan Sweden
    W 48 D 29.2 W 22.8
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 1.40–0.89
    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Group F M58
    Thu 25 Jun 23:00 UTC
    Tunisia Netherlands
    W 9.5 D 22.2 W 68.3
    ML 0–1 (16%) O2.5 44% · xG 0.56–1.87
    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Group D M59
    Fri 26 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Türkiye USA
    W 43.6 D 28.3 W 28.1
    ML 1–1 (13%) O2.5 47% · xG 1.44–1.11
    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Group D M60
    Fri 26 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Paraguay Australia
    W 37.5 D 34.4 W 28.1
    ML 0–0 (17%) O2.5 28% · xG 1.01–0.83
    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Group I M61
    Fri 26 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Norway France
    W 24.5 D 29.6 W 45.9
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 40% · xG 0.93–1.37
    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Group I M62
    Fri 26 Jun 19:00 UTC
    Senegal Iraq
    W 57.8 D 27.6 W 14.6
    ML 1–0 (17%) O2.5 37% · xG 1.52–0.64
    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Group H M65
    Sat 27 Jun 00:00 UTC
    Cabo Verde Saudi Arabia
    W 28.7 D 32.5 W 38.8
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 33% · xG 0.92–1.11
    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Group H M66
    Sat 27 Jun 00:00 UTC
    Uruguay Spain
    W 16.9 D 27.8 W 55.3
    ML 0–1 (15%) O2.5 39% · xG 0.72–1.51
    Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
  • Group G M63
    Sat 27 Jun 03:00 UTC
    Egypt IR Iran
    W 27.5 D 32.7 W 39.8
    ML 0–0 (15%) O2.5 32% · xG 0.88–1.12
    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Group G M64
    Sat 27 Jun 03:00 UTC
    New Zealand Belgium
    W 7.1 D 17.4 W 75.5
    ML 0–2 (15%) O2.5 54% · xG 0.57–2.27
    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Group L M67
    Sat 27 Jun 21:00 UTC
    Panama England
    W 5.3 D 15.8 W 78.9
    ML 0–2 (16%) O2.5 54% · xG 0.48–2.35
    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Group L M68
    Sat 27 Jun 21:00 UTC
    Croatia Ghana
    W 64.6 D 23.9 W 11.5
    ML 1–0 (16%) O2.5 43% · xG 1.77–0.61
    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Group K M71
    Sat 27 Jun 23:30 UTC
    Colombia Portugal
    W 31.9 D 31 W 37.1
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 39% · xG 1.06–1.17
    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Group K M72
    Sat 27 Jun 23:30 UTC
    Congo DR Uzbekistan
    W 32.6 D 35 W 32.4
    ML 0–0 (18%) O2.5 27% · xG 0.91–0.90
    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Group J M69
    Sun 28 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Algeria Austria
    W 30.3 D 31.1 W 38.6
    ML 1–1 (14%) O2.5 38% · xG 1.02–1.18
    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Group J M70
    Sun 28 Jun 02:00 UTC
    Jordan Argentina
    W 3.2 D 12 W 84.8
    ML 0–2 (17%) O2.5 59% · xG 0.39–2.65
    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Round of 32 M73
    Sun 28 Jun 19:00 UTC
    2A Runner-up Group A Runner-up Group B 2B

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Round of 32 M76
    Mon 29 Jun 17:00 UTC
    1C Winner Group C Runner-up Group F 2F

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Round of 32 M74
    Mon 29 Jun 20:30 UTC
    1E Winner Group E Best third · A/B/C/D/F A/B/C/D/F

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Round of 32 M75
    Tue 30 Jun 01:00 UTC
    1F Winner Group F Runner-up Group C 2C

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
  • Round of 32 M78
    Tue 30 Jun 17:00 UTC
    2E Runner-up Group E Runner-up Group I 2I

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Round of 32 M77
    Tue 30 Jun 21:00 UTC
    1I Winner Group I Best third · C/D/F/G/H C/D/F/G/H

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Round of 32 M79
    Wed 1 Jul 01:00 UTC
    1A Winner Group A Best third · C/E/F/H/I C/E/F/H/I

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
  • Round of 32 M80
    Wed 1 Jul 16:00 UTC
    1L Winner Group L Best third · E/H/I/J/K E/H/I/J/K

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Round of 32 M82
    Wed 1 Jul 20:00 UTC
    1G Winner Group G Best third · A/E/H/I/J A/E/H/I/J

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Round of 32 M81
    Thu 2 Jul 00:00 UTC
    1D Winner Group D Best third · B/E/F/I/J B/E/F/I/J

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
  • Round of 32 M84
    Thu 2 Jul 19:00 UTC
    1H Winner Group H Runner-up Group J 2J

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Round of 32 M83
    Thu 2 Jul 23:00 UTC
    2K Runner-up Group K Runner-up Group L 2L

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Toronto Stadium · Toronto
  • Round of 32 M85
    Fri 3 Jul 03:00 UTC
    1B Winner Group B Best third · E/F/G/I/J E/F/G/I/J

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Round of 32 M88
    Fri 3 Jul 18:00 UTC
    2D Runner-up Group D Runner-up Group G 2G

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Round of 32 M86
    Fri 3 Jul 22:00 UTC
    1J Winner Group J Runner-up Group H 2H

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Round of 32 M87
    Sat 4 Jul 01:30 UTC
    1K Winner Group K Best third · D/E/I/J/L D/E/I/J/L

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Round of 16 M90
    Sat 4 Jul 17:00 UTC
    W M73 Winner of Match 73 Winner of Match 75 W M75

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Houston Stadium · Houston
  • Round of 16 M89
    Sat 4 Jul 21:00 UTC
    W M74 Winner of Match 74 Winner of Match 77 W M77

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
  • Round of 16 M91
    Sun 5 Jul 20:00 UTC
    W M76 Winner of Match 76 Winner of Match 78 W M78

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
  • Round of 16 M92
    Mon 6 Jul 00:00 UTC
    W M79 Winner of Match 79 Winner of Match 80 W M80

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
  • Round of 16 M93
    Mon 6 Jul 19:00 UTC
    W M83 Winner of Match 83 Winner of Match 84 W M84

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Round of 16 M94
    Tue 7 Jul 00:00 UTC
    W M81 Winner of Match 81 Winner of Match 82 W M82

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Seattle Stadium · Seattle
  • Round of 16 M95
    Tue 7 Jul 16:00 UTC
    W M86 Winner of Match 86 Winner of Match 88 W M88

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Round of 16 M96
    Tue 7 Jul 20:00 UTC
    W M85 Winner of Match 85 Winner of Match 87 W M87

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    BC Place Vancouver · Vancouver
  • Quarter-final M97
    Thu 9 Jul 20:00 UTC
    W M89 Winner of Match 89 Winner of Match 90 W M90

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Boston Stadium · Foxborough
  • Quarter-final M98
    Fri 10 Jul 19:00 UTC
    W M93 Winner of Match 93 Winner of Match 94 W M94

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood
  • Quarter-final M99
    Sat 11 Jul 21:00 UTC
    W M91 Winner of Match 91 Winner of Match 92 W M92

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Quarter-final M100
    Sun 12 Jul 01:00 UTC
    W M95 Winner of Match 95 Winner of Match 96 W M96

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
  • Semi-final M101
    Tue 14 Jul 19:00 UTC
    W M97 Winner of Match 97 Winner of Match 98 W M98

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Dallas Stadium · Arlington
  • Semi-final M102
    Wed 15 Jul 19:00 UTC
    W M99 Winner of Match 99 Winner of Match 100 W M100

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
  • Third-place play-off M103
    Sat 18 Jul 21:00 UTC
    TBC To be confirmed To be confirmed TBC

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams.

    Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
  • Final M104
    Sun 19 Jul 19:00 UTC
    W M101 Winner of Match 101 Winner of Match 102 W M102

    Occupants are decided by the bracket — these are still probabilistic slots, not fixed teams. Slot odds on the bracket →

    New York/New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
How these forecasts are built — and why knockout ties are blank

Every group pairing is scored by the locked ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — into an 11×11 scoreline grid, then marginalised into win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), the over-2.5 rate and both-teams-to-score. These are the same distributions the tournament simulator consumes. Win/draw/loss is shown to sum to exactly 100% (largest-remainder rounding).

Knockout fixtures carry no probabilities here because their occupants are not yet teams but bracket slots — “Winner Group A”, “Best third A/B/C/D/F”, “Winner of Match 89”. A single matchup forecast would put a number on a fixture that does not yet exist; instead the bracket shows each slot’s probabilistic occupants from the locked 100k simulation. The third-place play-off (Match 103) sits outside the simulated single-elimination tree, so it is listed for completeness only.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model · FIFA — match forecasts from the locked ensemble; schedule, knockout wiring and venues from the official fixture list.