Tunisia v Netherlands · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇹🇳 Tunisia CAF Elo 1,628 · world 60th

10 / 22 / 68 win · draw · win most likely 0–1

🇳🇱 Netherlands UEFA Elo 1,944 · world 9th

Group: F
Date: Thursday 25 June 2026
Kick-off: 23:00 UTC
Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Tunisia goals down the side, Netherlands goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group F

Tunisia v Netherlands — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Tunisia scores k) and P(Netherlands scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.07% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Netherlands favourites at 68.3%, with a 22.2% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 0–1 (15.8%), but no exact score clears 16% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

9.5% 22.2% 68.3%

🇹🇳 Tunisia 9.5% Draw 22.2% 🇳🇱 Netherlands 68.3%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇹🇳Tunisia 0.56

🇳🇱Netherlands 1.87

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.42.

43.6% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

56.4% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

36.8% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

0–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 15.8%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Arrowhead Kansas City, USA

Heat index 37°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 31°C June–July daily high

Humidity 68% relative humidity

Altitude 273m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,628 Elo rating 1,944

1.40 Recent NT form 2.00

€88M Squad value €1076M

0.109 Squad form (global) 0.252

0.612 Fitness readiness 0.822

+0.21 Decoupling g +0.41

Netherlands carry the Elo edge (316 points). On the decoupling axis, Netherlands is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →