Austria v Jordan · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇦🇹 Austria UEFA Elo 1,830 · world 27th

61 / 25 / 14 win · draw · win most likely 1–0

🇯🇴 Jordan AFC Elo 1,680 · world 48th

Group: J
Date: Wednesday 17 June 2026
Kick-off: 04:00 UTC
Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Austria goals down the side, Jordan goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group J

Austria v Jordan — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Austria scores k) and P(Jordan scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.05% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Austria favourites at 61.4%, with a 24.5% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.8%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

61.4% 24.5% 14.1%

🇦🇹 Austria 61.4% Draw 24.5% 🇯🇴 Jordan 14.1%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇦🇹Austria 1.76

🇯🇴Jordan 0.72

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.49.

45.3% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

54.7% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

43.6% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

1–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 13.8%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Levi's Santa Clara, USA

Heat index 28°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 27°C June–July daily high

Humidity 63% relative humidity

Altitude 1m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,830 Elo rating 1,680

2.20 Recent NT form 1.33

€281M Squad value €16M

0.149 Squad form (global) 0.075

0.785 Fitness readiness 0.158

+0.31 Decoupling g −0.12

Austria carry the Elo edge (150 points). On the decoupling axis, Austria is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →