Congo DR v Uzbekistan · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇨🇩 Congo DR CAF Elo 1,661

33 / 35 / 32 win · draw · win most likely 0–0

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan AFC Elo 1,718 · world 37th

Group: K
Date: Saturday 27 June 2026
Kick-off: 23:30 UTC
Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Congo DR goals down the side, Uzbekistan goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group K

Congo DR v Uzbekistan — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Congo DR scores k) and P(Uzbekistan scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.00% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Congo DR favourites at 32.6%, with a 35.0% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 0–0 (17.6%), but no exact score clears 18% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

32.6% 35% 32.4%

🇨🇩 Congo DR 32.6% Draw 35% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 32.4%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇨🇩Congo DR 0.91

🇺🇿Uzbekistan 0.90

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 1.81.

27.2% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

72.8% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

36.5% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

0–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 17.6%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Mercedes-Benz Atlanta, USA

Heat index 37°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 31°C June–July daily high

Humidity 73% relative humidity

Altitude 313m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,661 Elo rating 1,718

2.20 Recent NT form 1.60

€184M Squad value €58M

0.154 Squad form (global) 0.209

0.557 Fitness readiness 0.396

−0.30 Decoupling g −0.51

Uzbekistan carry the Elo edge (57 points). On the decoupling axis, Congo DR is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →