Algeria v Austria · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇩🇿 Algeria CAF Elo 1,760 · world 31st

30 / 31 / 39 win · draw · win most likely 1–1

🇦🇹 Austria UEFA Elo 1,830 · world 27th

Group: J
Date: Sunday 28 June 2026
Kick-off: 02:00 UTC
Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Algeria goals down the side, Austria goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group J

Algeria v Austria — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Algeria scores k) and P(Austria scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.00% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Austria favourites at 38.6%, with a 31.1% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.4%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

30.3% 31.1% 38.6%

🇩🇿 Algeria 30.3% Draw 31.1% 🇦🇹 Austria 38.6%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇩🇿Algeria 1.02

🇦🇹Austria 1.18

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.20.

37.8% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

62.2% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

45.4% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

1–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 14.4%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Arrowhead Kansas City, USA

Heat index 37°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 31°C June–July daily high

Humidity 68% relative humidity

Altitude 273m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,760 Elo rating 1,830

2.40 Recent NT form 2.20

€282M Squad value €281M

0.287 Squad form (global) 0.149

0.756 Fitness readiness 0.785

−0.20 Decoupling g +0.31

Austria carry the Elo edge (70 points). On the decoupling axis, Austria is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →