Türkiye v Paraguay · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇹🇷 Türkiye UEFA Elo 1,911

38 / 31 / 31 win · draw · win most likely 1–1

🇵🇾 Paraguay CONMEBOL Elo 1,833 · world 23rd

Group: D
Date: Saturday 20 June 2026
Kick-off: 04:00 UTC
Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Türkiye goals down the side, Paraguay goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group D

Türkiye v Paraguay — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Türkiye scores k) and P(Paraguay scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.00% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Türkiye favourites at 37.7%, with a 31.3% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.4%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

37.7% 31.3% 31%

🇹🇷 Türkiye 37.7% Draw 31.3% 🇵🇾 Paraguay 31%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇹🇷Türkiye 1.16

🇵🇾Paraguay 1.02

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.18.

37.2% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

62.8% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

45.0% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

1–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 14.4%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Levi's Santa Clara, USA

Heat index 28°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 27°C June–July daily high

Humidity 63% relative humidity

Altitude 1m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,911 Elo rating 1,833

2.27 Recent NT form 1.67

€413M Squad value €152M

0.254 Squad form (global) 0.296

0.704 Fitness readiness 0.675

−0.41 Decoupling g −0.05

Türkiye carry the Elo edge (78 points). On the decoupling axis, Paraguay is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →