Scotland v Brazil · Oxford Football Forecasting

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland UEFA Elo 1,782 · world 33rd

13 / 23 / 64 win · draw · win most likely 0–2

🇧🇷 Brazil CONMEBOL Elo 1,991 · world 5th

Group: C
Date: Wednesday 24 June 2026
Kick-off: 22:00 UTC
Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Scotland goals down the side, Brazil goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group C

Scotland v Brazil — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Scotland scores k) and P(Brazil scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.08% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Brazil favourites at 64.4%, with a 22.9% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 0–2 (13.1%), but no exact score clears 13% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

12.7% 22.9% 64.4%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 12.7% Draw 22.9% 🇧🇷 Brazil 64.4%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland 0.72

🇧🇷Brazil 1.89

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.61.

48.5% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

51.5% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

44.4% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

0–2 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 13.1%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Hard Rock Miami Gardens, USA

Heat index 42°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 31°C June–July daily high

Humidity 82% relative humidity

Altitude 13m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,782 Elo rating 1,991

1.87 Recent NT form 1.80

€272M Squad value €1660M

0.322 Squad form (global) 0.335

0.589 Fitness readiness 0.745

+0.30 Decoupling g +0.39

Brazil carry the Elo edge (209 points). On the decoupling axis, Brazil is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →