Morocco v Haiti · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇲🇦 Morocco CAF Elo 1,827 · world 12th

73 / 20 / 7 win · draw · win most likely 2–0

🇭🇹 Haiti CONCACAF Elo 1,548 · world 71st

Group: C
Date: Wednesday 24 June 2026
Kick-off: 22:00 UTC
Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Morocco goals down the side, Haiti goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group C

Morocco v Haiti — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Morocco scores k) and P(Haiti scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.09% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Morocco favourites at 73.0%, with a 20.1% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 2–0 (17.3%), but no exact score clears 17% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

73% 20.1%

🇲🇦 Morocco 73% Draw 20.1% 🇭🇹 Haiti 6.9%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇲🇦Morocco 1.96

🇭🇹Haiti 0.45

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.40.

43.1% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

56.9% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

31.7% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

2–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 17.3%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Mercedes-Benz Atlanta, USA

Heat index 37°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 31°C June–July daily high

Humidity 73% relative humidity

Altitude 313m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,827 Elo rating 1,548

2.47 Recent NT form 1.27

€509M Squad value €44M

0.218 Squad form (global) 0.115

0.624 Fitness readiness 0.398

−0.58 Decoupling g −0.17

Morocco carry the Elo edge (279 points). On the decoupling axis, Haiti is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →