Uzbekistan v Colombia · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan AFC Elo 1,718 · world 37th

11 / 23 / 66 win · draw · win most likely 0–1

🇨🇴 Colombia CONMEBOL Elo 1,982 · world 6th

Group: K
Date: Thursday 18 June 2026
Kick-off: 02:00 UTC
Venue: Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Uzbekistan goals down the side, Colombia goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group K

Uzbekistan v Colombia — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Uzbekistan scores k) and P(Colombia scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.05% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Colombia favourites at 66.0%, with a 23.4% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 0–1 (16.0%), but no exact score clears 16% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

10.6% 23.4% 66%

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 10.6% Draw 23.4% 🇨🇴 Colombia 66%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇺🇿Uzbekistan 0.58

🇨🇴Colombia 1.79

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.37.

42.2% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

57.8% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

37.3% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

0–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 16.0%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Azteca Mexico City, Mexico

Heat index 25°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 24°C June–July daily high

Humidity 66% relative humidity

Altitude 2,287m high-altitude venue

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,718 Elo rating 1,982

1.60 Recent NT form 1.67

€58M Squad value €382M

0.209 Squad form (global) 0.285

0.396 Fitness readiness 0.809

−0.51 Decoupling g +0.47

Colombia carry the Elo edge (264 points). On the decoupling axis, Colombia is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →