Norway v France · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇳🇴 Norway UEFA Elo 1,914 · world 15th

24 / 30 / 46 win · draw · win most likely 1–1

🇫🇷 France UEFA Elo 2,062 · world 3rd

Group: I
Date: Friday 26 June 2026
Kick-off: 19:00 UTC
Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Norway goals down the side, France goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group I

Norway v France — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Norway scores k) and P(France scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.01% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes France favourites at 45.9%, with a 29.6% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.8%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

24.5% 29.6% 45.9%

🇳🇴 Norway 24.5% Draw 29.6% 🇫🇷 France 45.9%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇳🇴Norway 0.93

🇫🇷France 1.37

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.30.

40.4% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

59.6% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

46.2% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

1–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 13.8%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Boston Stadium, Foxborough — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Gillette Foxborough, USA

Heat index 29°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 27°C June–July daily high

Humidity 74% relative humidity

Altitude 83m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,914 Elo rating 2,062

2.40 Recent NT form 2.13

€580M Squad value €1609M

0.299 Squad form (global) 0.384

0.777 Fitness readiness 0.886

+0.24 Decoupling g +0.24

France carry the Elo edge (148 points). On the decoupling axis, France is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →