France is the clear favourite, winning Group I56% of the time. France (95%) and Norway (88%) are the likeliest to advance; Senegal carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (29%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M17 16 Jun · 19:00 UTC New York/New Jersey StadiumW 56.8 D 27.2 W 16 O2.5 40% BTTS 41% xG 1.56–0.71
- M18 16 Jun · 22:00 UTC Boston StadiumW 8.1 D 20 W 71.9 O2.5 47% BTTS 37% xG 0.54–2.03
- M41 23 Jun · 00:00 UTC New York/New Jersey StadiumW 45.7 D 29.8 W 24.5 O2.5 40% BTTS 46% xG 1.35–0.92
- M42 22 Jun · 21:00 UTC Philadelphia StadiumW 78.2 D 16.6 W 5.2 O2.5 50% BTTS 32% xG 2.24–0.44
- M61 26 Jun · 19:00 UTC Boston StadiumW 24.5 D 29.6 W 45.9 O2.5 40% BTTS 46% xG 0.93–1.37
- M62 26 Jun · 19:00 UTC Toronto StadiumW 57.8 D 27.6 W 14.6 O2.5 37% BTTS 38% xG 1.52–0.64
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group I — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
France owns first place (56%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.