Group H
Spain is the clear favourite, winning Group H76% of the time. Spain (99%) and Uruguay (90%) are the likeliest to advance; Saudi Arabia carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (21%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Spain UEFA
- Uruguay CONMEBOL
- Saudi Arabia AFC
- Cabo Verde CAF
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M13 15 Jun · 22:00 UTC Miami StadiumW 11.3 D 25.5 W 63.2 O2.5 37% BTTS 35% xG 0.55–1.63
- M14 15 Jun · 16:00 UTC Atlanta StadiumW 85.4 D 11.5 W 3.1 O2.5 60% BTTS 31% xG 2.70–0.39
- M37 21 Jun · 22:00 UTC Miami StadiumW 65.9 D 24.1 W 10 O2.5 39% BTTS 34% xG 1.72–0.52
- M38 21 Jun · 16:00 UTC Atlanta StadiumW 85.7 D 11.2 W 3.1 O2.5 62% BTTS 32% xG 2.78–0.42
- M65 27 Jun · 00:00 UTC Houston StadiumW 28.7 D 32.5 W 38.8 O2.5 33% BTTS 41% xG 0.92–1.11
- M66 27 Jun · 00:00 UTC Guadalajara StadiumW 16.9 D 27.8 W 55.3 O2.5 39% BTTS 41% xG 0.72–1.51
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group H — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Spain owns first place (76%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.