Brazil v Haiti · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇧🇷 Brazil CONMEBOL Elo 1,991 · world 5th

91 / 7 / 2 win · draw · win most likely 3–0

🇭🇹 Haiti CONCACAF Elo 1,548 · world 71st

Group: C
Date: Saturday 20 June 2026
Kick-off: 01:00 UTC
Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Brazil goals down the side, Haiti goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group C

Brazil v Haiti — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Brazil scores k) and P(Haiti scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 2.30% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Brazil favourites at 90.5%, with a 7.4% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 3–0 (13.8%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

90.5%

🇧🇷 Brazil 90.5% Draw 7.4% 🇭🇹 Haiti 2.1%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇧🇷Brazil 3.42

🇭🇹Haiti 0.46

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 3.88.

74.4% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

25.6% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

36.0% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

3–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 13.8%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Lincoln Financial Philadelphia, USA

Heat index 35°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 30°C June–July daily high

Humidity 67% relative humidity

Altitude 13m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,991 Elo rating 1,548

1.80 Recent NT form 1.27

€1660M Squad value €44M

0.335 Squad form (global) 0.115

0.745 Fitness readiness 0.398

+0.39 Decoupling g −0.17

Brazil carry the Elo edge (443 points). On the decoupling axis, Brazil is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →