Australia v Türkiye · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇦🇺 Australia AFC Elo 1,777 · world 24th

29 / 30 / 41 win · draw · win most likely 1–1

🇹🇷 Türkiye UEFA Elo 1,911

Group: D
Date: Sunday 14 June 2026
Kick-off: 04:00 UTC
Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Australia goals down the side, Türkiye goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group D

Australia v Türkiye — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Australia scores k) and P(Türkiye scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.00% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Türkiye favourites at 40.6%, with a 30.6% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.2%), but no exact score clears 14% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

28.8% 30.6% 40.6%

🇦🇺 Australia 28.8% Draw 30.6% 🇹🇷 Türkiye 40.6%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇦🇺Australia 1.00

🇹🇷Türkiye 1.24

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.25.

39.0% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

61.0% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

46.1% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

1–1 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 14.2%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

BC Place Vancouver, Canada

Heat index 21°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 21°C June–July daily high

Humidity 74% relative humidity

Altitude 11m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,777 Elo rating 1,911

1.93 Recent NT form 2.27

€55M Squad value €413M

0.087 Squad form (global) 0.254

0.616 Fitness readiness 0.704

−0.72 Decoupling g −0.41

Türkiye carry the Elo edge (134 points). On the decoupling axis, Türkiye is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →