Canada v Qatar · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇨🇦 Canada CONCACAF Elo 1,788 · world 25th

77 / 16 / 7 win · draw · win most likely 2–0

🇶🇦 Qatar AFC Elo 1,421 · world 115th

Group: B
Date: Thursday 18 June 2026
Kick-off: 22:00 UTC
Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Canada goals down the side, Qatar goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group B

Canada v Qatar — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Canada scores k) and P(Qatar scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.32% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes Canada favourites at 77.4%, with a 16.2% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 2–0 (14.9%), but no exact score clears 15% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

77.4% 16.2%

🇨🇦 Canada 77.4% Draw 16.2% 🇶🇦 Qatar 6.4%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇨🇦Canada 2.39

🇶🇦Qatar 0.57

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.95.

56.6% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

43.4% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

39.9% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

2–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 14.9%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

BC Place Vancouver, Canada

Heat index 21°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 21°C June–July daily high

Humidity 74% relative humidity

Altitude 11m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,788 Elo rating 1,421

1.73 Recent NT form 0.93

€201M Squad value €30M

0.293 Squad form (global) 0.052

0.669 Fitness readiness 0.330

+0.32 Decoupling g +0.74

Canada carry the Elo edge (367 points). On the decoupling axis, Qatar is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →