Egypt v IR Iran · Oxford Football Forecasting

🇪🇬 Egypt CAF Elo 1,696 · world 40th

27 / 33 / 40 win · draw · win most likely 0–0

🇮🇷 IR Iran AFC Elo 1,772

Group: G
Date: Saturday 27 June 2026
Kick-off: 03:00 UTC
Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle

§ 01

The scoreline grid

The ensemble's full distribution over exact scorelines — Egypt goals down the side, IR Iran goals across the top. This is the same 11×11 grid the tournament simulator samples.

Fig. V7 Ensemble · Group G

Egypt v IR Iran — scoreline probabilities

Cells show P(exact scoreline); the right column and bottom row are the marginal totals P(Egypt scores k) and P(IR Iran scores k). Grid runs 0–7 goals per side; the 8–10-goal tail holds 0.00% of the mass and is omitted from the cells (not from the totals).

The grid makes IR Iran favourites at 39.8%, with a 32.7% draw. The single most-likely scoreline is 0–0 (14.7%), but no exact score clears 15% — the distribution is broad, as it should be.

Source · Oxford Football Forecasting model

§ 02

Result, goals & totals

The grid marginalised into the outcome split, expected goals each side, and the goal-total markets — every figure read straight off the same distribution.

Win · draw · loss

27.5% 32.7% 39.8%

🇪🇬 Egypt 27.5% Draw 32.7% 🇮🇷 IR Iran 39.8%

Rounded values sum to exactly 100%.

Expected goals (λ)

🇪🇬Egypt 0.88

🇮🇷IR Iran 1.12

Poisson means feeding the grid; combined expected goals 2.00.

32.3% Over 2.5 goals P(3 or more goals in the match)

67.7% Under 2.5 goals complement of over-2.5

40.5% Both teams to score P(each side scores ≥ 1)

0–0 Most-likely scoreline modal exact score · 14.7%

§ 03

Venue context

The conditions at Seattle Stadium, Seattle — the same environment layer the dossiers' climate exposure draws on.

Lumen Seattle, USA

Heat index 23°C apparent temperature (June–July)

Max temperature 23°C June–July daily high

Humidity 69% relative humidity

Altitude 14m above sea level

Source · Open-Meteo & venue records. Travel and time-zone exposure are per-team — see each side's dossier.

§ 04

Why the model leans this way

The inputs behind the grid — each side's strength signals laid side by side. The forecast is the ensemble's, not a hand-weighting of these; this panel is the descriptive read.

1,696 Elo rating 1,772

1.60 Recent NT form 2.00

€176M Squad value €63M

0.158 Squad form (global) 0.212

0.661 Fitness readiness 0.366

+0.25 Decoupling g +0.01

IR Iran carry the Elo edge (76 points). On the decoupling axis, Egypt is the side whose squad is valued higher relative to its record.

How a single-match forecast is built

The pairing is scored by the ensemble — Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson, the Bayesian hierarchical model and the global LightGBM-Poisson, log-pooled — yielding the 11×11 scoreline grid above. Win/draw/loss, expected goals (λ), over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score are all marginals of that one grid, so they are mutually consistent by construction. The strength inputs shown here feed the models; the forecast is their pooled output, not a manual weighting of these rows. The model matches the market out-of-sample (RPS 0.1891 vs 0.1905); it does not significantly beat it at n = 3. The ensemble, in full →