Group E
Germany is the clear favourite, winning Group E55% of the time. Germany (98%) and Ecuador (93%) are the likeliest to advance; Côte d'Ivoire carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (39%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Germany UEFA
- Ecuador CONMEBOL
- Côte d'Ivoire CAF
- Curaçao CONCACAF
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M9 14 Jun · 23:00 UTC Philadelphia StadiumW 21.5 D 33.6 W 44.9 O2.5 28% BTTS 35% xG 0.70–1.13
- M10 14 Jun · 17:00 UTC Houston StadiumW 93.5 D 5.2 W 1.3 O2.5 80% BTTS 35% xG 3.85–0.44
- M33 20 Jun · 20:00 UTC Toronto StadiumW 56.1 D 26.2 W 17.7 O2.5 45% BTTS 46% xG 1.65–0.82
- M34 21 Jun · 00:00 UTC Kansas City StadiumW 82.3 D 14.1 W 3.6 O2.5 51% BTTS 27% xG 2.38–0.35
- M55 25 Jun · 20:00 UTC Philadelphia StadiumW 7.3 D 18.7 W 74 O2.5 49% BTTS 37% xG 0.53–2.13
- M56 25 Jun · 20:00 UTC New York/New Jersey StadiumW 29.4 D 30.7 W 39.9 O2.5 39% BTTS 46% xG 1.02–1.23
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group E — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Germany owns first place (55%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.