Brazil is the clear favourite, winning Group C66% of the time. Brazil (98%) and Morocco (89%) are the likeliest to advance; Scotland carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (34%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M5 14 Jun · 01:00 UTC Boston StadiumW 12.7 D 23.7 W 63.6 O2.5 46% BTTS 42% xG 0.69–1.81
- M7 13 Jun · 22:00 UTC New York/New Jersey StadiumW 47 D 31.3 W 21.7 O2.5 33% BTTS 40% xG 1.27–0.77
- M29 20 Jun · 01:00 UTC Philadelphia StadiumW 90.5 D 7.4 W 2.1 O2.5 74% BTTS 36% xG 3.42–0.46
- M30 19 Jun · 22:00 UTC Boston StadiumW 21.3 D 32.8 W 45.9 O2.5 29% BTTS 36% xG 0.71–1.18
- M49 24 Jun · 22:00 UTC Miami StadiumW 12.7 D 22.9 W 64.4 O2.5 48% BTTS 44% xG 0.72–1.89
- M50 24 Jun · 22:00 UTC Atlanta StadiumW 73 D 20.1 W 6.9 O2.5 43% BTTS 32% xG 1.96–0.45
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group C — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Brazil owns first place (66%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.