Group B
Switzerland is the clear favourite, winning Group B57% of the time. Switzerland (96%) and Canada (92%) are the likeliest to advance; Bosnia and Herzegovina carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (31%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Switzerland UEFA
- Canada CONCACAF
- Qatar AFC
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M3 12 Jun · 19:00 UTC Toronto StadiumW 55.8 D 26.4 W 17.8 O2.5 45% BTTS 46% xG 1.64–0.83
- M8 13 Jun · 19:00 UTC San Francisco Bay Area StadiumW 5.1 D 14.4 W 80.5 O2.5 59% BTTS 38% xG 0.53–2.53
- M26 18 Jun · 19:00 UTC Los Angeles StadiumW 62.2 D 24.2 W 13.6 O2.5 45% BTTS 43% xG 1.78–0.71
- M27 18 Jun · 22:00 UTC BC Place VancouverW 77.4 D 16.2 W 6.4 O2.5 57% BTTS 40% xG 2.39–0.57
- M51 24 Jun · 19:00 UTC BC Place VancouverW 46 D 29.9 W 24.1 O2.5 39% BTTS 45% xG 1.35–0.90
- M52 24 Jun · 19:00 UTC Seattle StadiumW 53.4 D 27.7 W 18.9 O2.5 42% BTTS 44% xG 1.53–0.81
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group B — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Switzerland owns first place (57%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.