Group D is open — Türkiye leads on just 33% to win it. Türkiye (77%) and Paraguay (69%) are the likeliest to advance; Australia carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (19%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M4 13 Jun · 01:00 UTC Los Angeles StadiumW 35.5 D 29.7 W 34.8 O2.5 43% BTTS 50% xG 1.21–1.20
- M6 14 Jun · 04:00 UTC BC Place VancouverW 28.8 D 30.6 W 40.6 O2.5 39% BTTS 46% xG 1.00–1.24
- M31 20 Jun · 04:00 UTC San Francisco Bay Area StadiumW 37.7 D 31.3 W 31 O2.5 37% BTTS 45% xG 1.16–1.02
- M32 19 Jun · 19:00 UTC Seattle StadiumW 38.6 D 29.1 W 32.3 O2.5 45% BTTS 51% xG 1.31–1.17
- M59 26 Jun · 02:00 UTC Los Angeles StadiumW 43.6 D 28.3 W 28.1 O2.5 47% BTTS 52% xG 1.44–1.11
- M60 26 Jun · 02:00 UTC San Francisco Bay Area StadiumW 37.5 D 34.4 W 28.1 O2.5 28% BTTS 37% xG 1.01–0.83
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group D — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
No team is favoured to win the group by more than 33% — the probability mass is spread across positions, which is what makes Group D a tossup.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.