Group F
Netherlands is the clear favourite, winning Group F53% of the time. Netherlands (92%) and Japan (83%) are the likeliest to advance; Sweden carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (24%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Netherlands UEFA
- Japan AFC
- Sweden UEFA
- Tunisia CAF
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M11 14 Jun · 20:00 UTC Dallas StadiumW 42.2 D 30.9 W 26.9 O2.5 37% BTTS 45% xG 1.25–0.94
- M12 15 Jun · 02:00 UTC Monterrey StadiumW 46.6 D 30.5 W 22.9 O2.5 37% BTTS 43% xG 1.31–0.84
- M35 20 Jun · 17:00 UTC Houston StadiumW 58.6 D 24.7 W 16.7 O2.5 49% BTTS 49% xG 1.79–0.85
- M36 21 Jun · 04:00 UTC Monterrey StadiumW 14.1 D 28.7 W 57.2 O2.5 33% BTTS 34% xG 0.58–1.43
- M57 25 Jun · 23:00 UTC Dallas StadiumW 48 D 29.2 W 22.8 O2.5 40% BTTS 46% xG 1.40–0.89
- M58 25 Jun · 23:00 UTC Kansas City StadiumW 9.5 D 22.2 W 68.3 O2.5 44% BTTS 37% xG 0.56–1.87
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group F — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Netherlands owns first place (53%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.