Group K
Group K is open — Portugal leads on just 50% to win it. Portugal (94%) and Colombia (91%) are the likeliest to advance; Congo DR carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (21%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Portugal UEFA
- Colombia CONMEBOL
- Congo DR CAF
- Uzbekistan AFC
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M23 17 Jun · 17:00 UTC Houston StadiumW 65.4 D 24.2 W 10.4 O2.5 39% BTTS 35% xG 1.72–0.54
- M24 18 Jun · 02:00 UTC Mexico City StadiumW 10.6 D 23.4 W 66 O2.5 42% BTTS 37% xG 0.58–1.79
- M47 23 Jun · 17:00 UTC Houston StadiumW 70.4 D 20.7 W 8.9 O2.5 47% BTTS 38% xG 1.99–0.57
- M48 24 Jun · 02:00 UTC Guadalajara StadiumW 61.6 D 26.4 W 12 O2.5 36% BTTS 35% xG 1.58–0.56
- M71 27 Jun · 23:30 UTC Miami StadiumW 31.9 D 31 W 37.1 O2.5 39% BTTS 46% xG 1.06–1.17
- M72 27 Jun · 23:30 UTC Atlanta StadiumW 32.6 D 35 W 32.4 O2.5 27% BTTS 36% xG 0.91–0.90
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group K — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
No team is favoured to win the group by more than 50% — the probability mass is spread across positions, which is what makes Group K a tossup.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.