Group G
Belgium is the clear favourite, winning Group G57% of the time. Belgium (94%) and IR Iran (79%) are the likeliest to advance; Egypt carries the group's best third-place qualification hope (24%).
§ 01
Advancement matrix
Each team's group-stage fate, split into win-group · runner-up · best-third qualify · eliminated (the four sum to one). Ordered by P(win group).
- Belgium UEFA
- IR Iran AFC
- Egypt CAF
- New Zealand OFC
§ 02
The six fixtures
Round-robin match forecasts — win/draw/loss, the single most-likely scoreline, and the over-2.5 / both-teams-to-score rates, marginalised from the locked ensemble scoreline grids.
- M15 16 Jun · 01:00 UTC Los Angeles StadiumW 58.1 D 27.2 W 14.7 O2.5 38% BTTS 39% xG 1.56–0.66
- M16 15 Jun · 19:00 UTC Seattle StadiumW 52.9 D 28.5 W 18.6 O2.5 39% BTTS 42% xG 1.47–0.77
- M39 21 Jun · 19:00 UTC Los Angeles StadiumW 48.2 D 28.6 W 23.2 O2.5 42% BTTS 47% xG 1.45–0.93
- M40 22 Jun · 01:00 UTC BC Place VancouverW 18.6 D 31.3 W 50.1 O2.5 31% BTTS 36% xG 0.67–1.28
- M63 27 Jun · 03:00 UTC Seattle StadiumW 27.5 D 32.7 W 39.8 O2.5 32% BTTS 40% xG 0.88–1.12
- M64 27 Jun · 03:00 UTC BC Place VancouverW 7.1 D 17.4 W 75.5 O2.5 54% BTTS 39% xG 0.57–2.27
§ 03
Where they finish
The simulated final-standings distribution: how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th across 100,000 tournaments.
Fig. V4 100k sims · official tiebreakers · row sums to 100%
Group G — simulated finishing positions
Top two qualify automatically (left of the line). Third place advances only as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups.
Belgium owns first place (57%); below the top two the third- and fourth-place mass is where qualification is really decided.
Reading the matrix and the heatmap
Both the advancement matrix and this heatmap are tallied from the same locked 100,000-tournament simulation that produces the forecast. Each row of the heatmap sums to 100% (a team finishes somewhere); each column sums to 100% across the four teams (exactly one team takes each position). The dashed line sits between 2nd and 3rd: the top two qualify automatically, while third place advances only if it ranks among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups — which is why a team's P(advance) exceeds its P(top-two) by its best-third qualification chance.