Research

Data as Liability: AI Adoption and Disclosed Breach-Risk Attention

Fatih Kansoy and Yuhao Huo · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

Artificial intelligence makes data more productive, but it also makes data more costly to govern. This paper asks where that governance cost shows up in firms' own risk disclosures. Using roughly 84,000 firm-years of SEC annual filings for US listed firms from 1994 to 2023, the paper builds layered text and LLM measures to separate AI invention from AI adoption and relates both to disclosed attention to data breach risk. AI...

The Immediate Global Impact of US Monetary Policy

Fatih Kansoy · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

Immediate international monetary spillovers are large and broadly shared, but standard daily designs understate their magnitude and overstate cross-country heterogeneity because most foreign cash markets are closed at FOMC announcement times. US-traded country ETFs allow shocks and outcomes to be measured in the same high-frequency window. A geographic discontinuity validates the design. ETF returns predict next-open...

Monetary Policy Transmission and Environmental Performance: Firm-level Evidence from High-Frequency Identification

Fatih Kansoy and Dominykas Stasiulaitis · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

The paper analyses whether monetary policy transmits differently across firms with varying environmental performance. Using high-frequency identification around FOMC announcements from 2005 to 2025, it decomposes policy shocks into target and path components. Environmental heterogeneity is strongest in the forward-guidance or path channel. Before the Paris Agreement, higher-environmental-score firms were more exposed to...

Central Bank Communication and CBDC Implementation

Fatih Kansoy · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

Central banks discuss central bank digital currency far more often than they move from research to implementation. This paper asks whether public commitment in central bank communication predicts that transition or whether it mainly captures participation in the policy debate. Using a country-year panel built from more than 15,000 scored central bank speeches across 122 jurisdictions between 2015 and 2025, the paper constructs...

Do Central Banks Take Climate Change Seriously?

Fatih Kansoy · Available as: Working paper

Central banks now speak openly about climate change. Whether climate enters the official record through which monetary-policy decisions are explained is another matter. This paper compares more than 37,000 speeches from 136 institutions with nearly 3,600 official meeting records from 26 central banks across 14 languages. Within the common 26-institution sample observed in both channels, benchmark comparisons show that climate...

Central Bank Communication Design and Public Attention

Fatih Kansoy · Available as: Working paper

The paper studies whether the structure of central bank communication events affects public engagement with monetary policy. The Bank of England's 2015 Super Thursday reform replaced a two-occasion quarterly forecast round, in which the rate decision and the forecast report arrived on separate days, with a single bundled release. Using Twitter (X), Google Trends, and Wikipedia as measures of revealed attention, the paper finds...

Pricing Human Capital in a Modernising State: Education and Skill Premia in the Ottoman Civil Service

Fatih Kansoy, Omer Akyildiz, Metin Cosgel, and Selahattin Yildirim · Available as: Working paper

This paper investigates the pricing of human capital within a modernising imperial state. Using a newly constructed personnel panel of 4,200 Ottoman Post and Telegraph officials from the 1870s to 1905, it documents a steep, monotonic wage gradient where advanced credentials command premia of 37-46 percent relative to primary schooling. The administration also systematically rewarded task-relevant skills, with stable returns to...

Detailed paper page forthcoming.

Central Bank Communication with Public: Bank of England and Twitter (X)

Fatih Kansoy and Joel Mundy · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

Central banks increasingly communicate directly with the public, yet most evidence studies comprehension after exposure. This paper studies the prior attention margin: which official Bank of England tweets receive visible public engagement. Using 9,810 official Bank of England tweets from July 2011 to July 2022, tweet-level Poisson models show that format, timing, and policy context strongly predict engagement. Photo tweets...

Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times

Fatih Kansoy and Dominykas Stasiulaitis · Published in: University of Oxford Department of Economics Discussion Papers

This page presents the same ESG monetary-transmission project under its shorter research title. The paper studies whether environmental and ESG characteristics create heterogeneous responses to FOMC target and path surprises. The clearest evidence is in the path or forward-guidance channel, and the relationship changes around the Paris-era deepening of green finance. The page should be read together with the fuller...

FOMC Minutes: As a Source of Monetary Policy Surprise

Fatih Kansoy · Published in: Warwick Economics Research Papers, No. 1436

This paper asks whether FOMC minutes, released after the policy meeting, still contain market-relevant surprise information. It constructs target and path surprise measures using intradaily data for Fed funds futures and studies the response of stock prices, Treasury yields, and exchange rates from December 2004 to November 2017. The paper finds that minutes releases induce higher-than-normal volatility and that asset prices...

Islamic Finance as a Means to Make Istanbul an International Financial Centre

Fatih Kansoy and Hasan Huseyin Karlioglu · Published in: Afro Eurasian Studies, 2(1-2), 126-143

The paper discusses and assesses Istanbul as an international finance centre within the context of Islamic finance. It argues that Istanbul's current image, legal and regulatory infrastructure, and human capacity did not at the time allow it to become an international finance centre. At the same time, Istanbul's strategic location between the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, its relations with Muslim countries, and Turkey's...

The Determinants of Net Interest Margin in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Bank Ownership Matter?

Fatih Kansoy · Published in: Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 6(2), 13-49

This research empirically investigates the determinants of net interest margin in the Turkish banking sector with particular emphasis on bank ownership. It uses a bank-level dataset covering Turkey's commercial banking sector from 2001 to 2012. Operation diversity, credit risk, and operating costs are important determinants of margins in Turkey. More efficient banks exhibit lower margins, and price stability contributes to...